Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds

Daniel Coyle | Updated May 22, 2024

The Timberwolves will be making their first appearance in the Western Conference Finals in 20 years on Thursday when they take on the Mavericks in Game 1 of this series.

Dallas
50-32
AT
May 22, 2024, 8:30 PM ET
Target Center
Minnesota
56-26
Pointspread +4.5 -110
Moneyline +155
Over / Under o +206.5

0%

Betting Action

62%

Pointspread -4.5 -110
Moneyline -190
Over / Under u +206.5

0%

Betting Action

62%

The No. 3 seed in the West, the Mavericks survived a seesaw second-round battle with the Denver Nuggets, ultimately claiming the series victory with a 98-90 win on the road in Game 7, However, the T-Wolves have work to do to overcome a middling 3-2 run on home court so far in the postseason. The fifth-seeded Mavericks are making their second West Finals appearance in three years after knocking off the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in six games in the second round, and now face the Timberwolves for the first time since sweeping them in a first-round matchup back in 2002.

The Timberwolves are listed as 4.5-point favourites on the Game 1 odds and have also opened as -185 chalk on the NBA series prices. The Mavericks are pegged as 150 moneyline underdogs to claim their fifth win in six road games, and are an intriguing +150 bet to win this series. The total for Game 1 is listed at 206.5.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoff Betting Odds

The Timberwolves finished six games ahead of Dallas during the regular season and also claimed the win in three of four dates with the Mavs. Overall, Minnesota has topped the Mavericks in eight of 12 overall meetings including six of their past seven of home court. But despite being just one of five teams to reach the 30-win mark at home this season, the T-Wolves have struggled to find consistency at home during the postseason. The club squandered an early 2-0 series advantage with home losses in Games 3 and 4 against Denver, extending an historical trend that has seen them win and cover in just seven of 13 playoff home games since 2018.

One of the hottest teams in the NBA while winning 16 of their final 20 regular season games, the Mavs have carried that momentum over into the NBA playoffs with series victories over the LA Clippers and the defending champion Nuggets. The Mavericks have built their playoff success on impressive road performances, with their four recent away victories coming by an average margin of 13.5 points. Despite that success, the Mavericks have remained an uneven bet, going 7-7 ATS in their past 14 overall, but have covered in four of six as underdogs by at least four points. The Mavericks have also struggled in series opening games, falling to defeat in five straight and 11 of their past 12 Game 1 appearances.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has been a driving force for the Mavericks during this spring’s playoff run. The NBA scoring champion during the regular season with 33.9 points per game, Doncic has maintained that momentum in the postseason. In addition to leading the club with 27.2 points per game, the five-time NBA All-Star is also tops on the club with 9.7 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game, and has recorded triple-doubles in each of the past three games. However, Doncic has also been playing through a knee sprain that has yet to force him to miss any action, but which leaves him listed as a game time decision on Wednesday. Kyrie Irving sits second to Doncic with 21.1 points per game. Irving has also regularly feasted on the T-Wolves, averaging 35.6 points per game over his past five appearances and is a solid -150 bet on the NBA players props to pick up OVER 20.5 points in Game 1.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards has found a higher gear in this year’s NBA playoffs while piling up 28.9 points per game and now enters the West Finals trailing only Jayson Tatum as a +350 wager on the NBA Finals MVP odds. However, the Timberwolves have benefited from contributions from up and down the lineup. Big man Rudy Gobert has averaged 10.9 boards per game and pulled down 14 rebounds in each of his past two home appearances. Jaden McDaniels has also thrived with a bigger assignment, averaging 22 points in the final two games of the second round after averaging just seven points per game over the first five games of the series. However veteran point guard Mike Conley enters the series still hobbled by an achilles injury that has plagued him throughout the postseason.

Game 1 Prediction: Who Will Win Mavericks vs. Timberwolves?

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