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Andrew Rogers
Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds, Point Spread
The Lakers used an Anthony Davis buzzer-beater to stun the Denver Nuggets 105-103 in Game 2, coming through with the win but falling short of the cover at -7. They’ll see a similar spread Tuesday against a Nuggets team that’s used to being behind in a playoff series.
NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The spread is ever-so-slightly down from Game 2, with the Lakers coming in as 6.5-point favorites. Los Angeles is a sizzling 5-1 ATS in its previous six games and boasts one of the top records against the spread in the 2020 postseason at 8-4. The Nuggets come in with an identical 66.7% conversion rate (10-5-1) and pulled out an improbable cover in Game 2 despite trailing by as many as 16 points in the early stages of the third quarter.
The teams have gone 1-1 through the first two games, though Game 2 was trending toward the Over in the opening half before the scoring dried up somewhat after the break. The Game 3 total is set at 214, with a slight majority 60 percent of Sports Interaction participants leaning toward the Over. But these teams are trending strongly the other way, with the Lakers 4-1 to the Under in their last five games and the Nuggets at 8-2 to the Under in their previous 10.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have been quick starters, for sure, but they fell surprisingly flat in the second half of Sunday’s game before pulling it out on Davis’s circus 3-pointer. And if you’re looking for one weakness in L.A.’s postseason run, it’s that the team ranks just seventh among playoff clubs at 52.3 second-half points per game (and sits 10th in second-half 3-point shooting at 33.6 percent). If the Nuggets can keep things close at the break, they might have a shot.
Denver Nuggets
Could be as simple as getting off to a better start? Not necessarily – but it couldn’t hurt. Denver has had two wildly different first-quarter experiences so far in the conference final, scoring 36 points in the opening 12 minutes of Game 1 but just 21 in Game 2. They lost both times, but will almost certainly need to be better in Quarter 1 on Tuesday. They rank eighth among playoff teams with 27.9 ppg in the first quarter, while the Lakers are No. 1 at 31.4 ppg.
LAL
DEN