New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Prediction, NBA Finals Odds
The NBA Finals return to the Frost Bank Center on Saturday night for a Game 5 with the championship trophy in the building. The New York Knicks hold a 3-1 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs after pulling off a breathtaking piece of history in Game 4.
New York engineered the largest comeback in NBA Finals history on Wednesday, erasing a massive 29-point deficit to stun the home crowd. The Spurs looked unstoppable in a 76-49 first half but completely collapsed in the second, while the battle-tested Knicks caught fire, drilling 11-of-20 attempts from beyond the arc in the final two frames to push San Antonio to the brink of elimination.
The Spurs are 5.5-point favourites to win on the NBA odds, with the total set at 216.5.
Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Championship Betting Odds
The Under has been the dominant trend of this championship series, cashing in three of the first four games. This aligns perfectly with long-term historical data, as NBA Finals games have gone 45-69 Over/Under since the 2005-06 season — a striking 60.5 per cent cash rate for under bettors.
However, San Antonio’s bounce-back trends are tough to ignore; the resilient young Spurs are a phenomenal 7-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) following a loss in these playoffs, suggesting they will fight tooth and nail to prolong their season.
New York Knicks
The visiting Knicks are showing incredible offensive organization, systematically executing whenever the game slows to a half-court crawl. Supporting star OG Anunoby has been lethal, terrorizing San Antonio from the perimeter when left open, and driving baseline with physical drives and tough finishes when the Spurs close out too hard.
Anunoby is shooting an astonishing 13-of-16 from deep during these playoffs, including a perfect 4-for-4 in the Finals, dropping 30 points in Game 4. And, oh yeah, it was Anunoby who had the free run to the rim on Jalen Brunson’s hoist with a couple of seconds remaining, majestically tipping the offensive rebound in with sweet finesse as 1.5 seconds remained on the game clock.
New York accomplished their historic comeback despite getting very little from Mikal Bridges and enduring a first-half disappearance from Karl-Anthony Towns due to early foul trouble. With Towns well-rested after playing just 18 minutes on Wednesday, the Knicks’ forwards should be fully primed to close out the series.
San Antonio Spurs
For the young Spurs, their biggest obstacle has been a total inability to execute late-game half-court offence. San Antonio thrives in transition when Dylan Harper can ad-lib, and Devin Vassell or Julian Champagnie find shooting rhythm in space. However, franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyama looked visibly exhausted and passive during the second-half collapse of Game 4.
Fortunately, the extended two-day break ahead of Saturday night is a massive advantage to recharge Wembanyama’s batteries. The Spurs also desperately need guard Stephon Castle to stay out of foul trouble. Castle’s bulldog defence on Brunson is the key to San Antonio’s game plan, and analytics models project him to bounce back with a heavy workload.
NBA Game 5 Prediction: Who Will Win Knicks vs. Spurs?
It is nearly impossible to bet against this relentless Knicks squad with the 5.5 points, as they have proven time and again that no deficit is too large to overcome. That being said, the Spurs possess the youthful amnesia required to shake off a historic heartbreak.
With a re-energized Wembanyama benefiting from the extra days of rest, expect San Antonio to fix their half-court execution just enough to extend the series in front of an electric home crowd.
Best Bet: Spurs moneyline (-198)
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