Heat vs. Bucks Game 1 Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread
The Eastern Conference top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and No. 5 Miami Heat open their postseason semifinal best-of-7 series Monday (6:30 p.m. ET) from the Orlando bubble with the Bucks as 5.5-point favourites on the NBA odds. They are also clear-cut series favourites.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Milwaukee be the “home” team for Game 1. The Bucks have reached the Eastern Conference semifinals in back-to-back years for the first time since 1986 & ’87. Milwaukee beat Boston in five games in last year’s semifinal series before losing to Toronto in six in the East Finals. Miami is in this round for the first time since 2016 when it lost to the Raptors in seven. That was the first time the Dinos ever made the East Finals.
It’s only the second time the Bucks and Heat will meet in the playoffs. In the 2013 first round, the Heat swept in four. They had guys named LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh back then.
Miami won the regular-season series 2-1, although the Bucks won the most recent matchup Aug. 6 in Orlando, 130-116. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton scored 33 points each to lead the Bucks. The Heat led by as many as 23 in the first half despite playing without two of their best players in Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic.
Miami Heat
Miami dispatched Indiana in a first-round playoff sweep and hasn’t played since Aug. 24 when it knocked out the Pacers 99-87 – which would end up costing Indiana coach Nate McMillan his job. Butler is the engine that makes the Heat go and averaged 19.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists in the series. He’s also a very good defender who should be matched up on Antetokounmpo quite often. Dragic led the Heat in scoring vs. the Pacers at 22.8 ppg.
Miami rookie Tyler Herro averaged 16.5 points in the series and his 66 points combined off the bench were the second-most points in NBA history by a rookie reserve in their first four playoff games. He’s a good three-point shooter and the Heat are as a whole. They made 979 of them during the regular season, most in team history. Their percentage of .379 from deep was No. 2 in the NBA. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs. Miami has one Canadian on the roster: Big man Kelly Olynyk, who was born in Toronto but largely grew up in Kamloops. He’s a reserve for the Heat.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks suffered one of the bigger upsets in NBA playoff history in Game 1 of their series against No. 8 Orlando, but that seemed to only wake Milwaukee up as it dominated the final four games. The Bucks finished the Magic off Saturday with a 118-104 victory. To no surprise, the Greek Freak, who is going to win a second league MVP Award and already took home Defensive Player of the Year honours, led the team in scoring and rebounding in each game. He averaged an absurd 30.6 points, 16.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists in the series. He dunked 22 times vs. Orlando; the Magic had six total dunks.
No other Bucks player averaged more than 15 points in the series, and they aren’t winning a title if Khris Middleton doesn’t step up to be that true No. 2 option. The Bucks not only had the best record in the NBA during the regular season but led in point differential at plus-10.1, the 11th-highest in league history. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in its past nine after a win.
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