The Boston Celtics close out a four-game West Coast road trip tonight in Denver, taking on the Nuggets at Ball Arena (10 PM ET, ESPN) in the second leg of a rugged back-to-back after facing Phoenix on Tuesday. Boston is eyeing a perfect 4-0 trip to begin the post-All-Star stretch, but altitude and fatigue could factor in a big way here.

Denver, meanwhile, returns home for the first time since the break. The Nuggets book-ended a three-game road trip with losses to the Clippers and Warriors, destroying the Trail Blazers with a gaudy 157-point mark in between. Denver now gets two full days of rest against an elite opponent.

Oddsmakers have the Nuggets listed as 3.5-point favourites on the NBA odds board.

Celtics vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Odds

To go against the grain, Boston has performed well on the second leg of back-to-backs this season (6-2 SU, 6-2ATS) and on the road (20-10 ATS).  Denver has actually been worse at Ball Arena, going 15-11 and just 12-14 ATS. On two days’ rest, they have been middling, going 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. This is truly an exciting treat for national viewers, as the Nuggets and Celtics rank No. 1 and No. 2 in offensive rating.

Boston Celtics

Boston’s offensive identity remains built around spacing, taking care of the basketball, working the shot clock, launching threes, and cleaning up their misses on the glass. Jayson Tatum has been out the whole season after tearing his Achilles in last year’s playoffs, but he is expected back in early March. In his absence, Jaylen Brown has solidified himself as one of the game’s very best, averaging 29.2 PPG, 7.0 REB, and 4.9 AST. Behind Brown, Payton Pritchard and Derrick White have played terrific basketball in the backcourt, while Neemias Queta and deadline acquisition Nikola Vucevic form a nice defence-offence frontcourt pairing. 

Defensively, Boston ranks seventh. Boston switches aggressively, protects the paint well, and limits transition. They do, however, struggle somewhat on the defensive glass and allow a high volume of threes at a 36% clip. It is important to note that Jaylen Brown sat out of last night’s action and will be primed to perform in tonight’s marquee matchup.

Denver Nuggets

Denver’s offence continues to revolve around Nikola Jokić (28.8 PPG, 12.5 REB, 10.5 AST), who remains the most efficient hub in basketball. Like Boston, Denver slows the game down and takes excellent care of the ball. Unlike Boston, Denver’s offence emphasizes snappy ball movement. Jokić’s ability to orchestrate from the elbows forces defences into impossible choices. Denver also scores a ton from mid-range and the free-throw line. Denver does not emphasize three-point shooting and offensive rebounding, although they do own the best three-point shooting mark in the NBA at 39.4%. 

Jamal Murray, in particular, has shot 42.3% from downtown and also dishes out 7.5 assists per game while averaging 25.5 points.  provides shot-making and pick-and-roll scoring late in games. Denver’s defence is subpar, however, and hamstring injuries to Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have lowered the team’s offensive ceiling, making the defence a glaring weakness. Denver is eighth in three-point defence, but they allow a high volume of triples.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Nuggets?

Slow pace aside, I think there is a path to offensive success for both teams tonight. Heavy legs in altitude should dim Boston’s defensive efforts, while Denver has had time to prepare for a Celtics defence that takes away the paint. The injuries hurt Denver’s ceiling to the point I don’t feel comfortable backing them on the spread. 

However, if the Nuggets lean into their outside shooting with Murray and Jokić, they can light it up. The Celtics should also get plenty of clean looks from the perimeter, where they are comfortable operating. Brown can bully without Watson or Gordon present, and Jokić can absolutely dominate the Celtics’ frontcourt.

In a game between the two best offences, we should see them both shine, spearheaded by the superstars delivering on national TV.

CELTICS

Away

116

NUGGETS

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119

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