Bucks vs. Heat Game 3 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds, Point Spread
Despite the Heat’s series advantage, they are 5-point underdogs on the NBA odds for Game 3.
NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis
If this were a normal NBA postseason, the Bucks might already be finished in this series because the Heat would be hosting the next two games in Miami. Alas, there is no home-court advantage in the Orlando bubble.
One interesting theory about the bubble is that referees are calling games tighter because they can hear the players and sounds – like slapping, etc. – much more clearly because there are no fans making noise. Referees are not supposed to decide any games, especially in the playoffs, but they absolutely did in Miami’s 116-114 Game 2 victory on Wednesday. Actually, just one did: Marc Davis.
Miami is now the -175 series favourite with Milwaukee at +140. Yet despite that, the favoured exact series result is Bucks winning in seven at +260. The Heat are +230 second-favourites to win the East with the Bucks third at +240.
Milwaukee Bucks
Frankly, the Bucks didn’t deserve to win Game 2 as they were thoroughly outplayed. However, Milwaukee got a huge break when Davis called the Heat’s Goran Dragic for a very questionable foul with 4.3 seconds left while the Bucks’ Khris Middleton was attempting a three-pointer. Middleton missed the shot but made all three free throws to tie the game at 114, and it looked headed to overtime. Middleton was solid enough overall with 23 points but was 6-for-15 shooting.
Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo was much more aggressive getting to the rim in Game 2 than Game 1, finishing with 29 points and 14 rebounds, but the Bucks were outscored by seven points with him on the court. After missing Game 1, starting point guard Eric Bledsoe was back and had 16 points and seven rebounds. The Bucks are 12th team to trail 2-0 in a best-of-7 series all-time after having the best record in the NBA during the regular season. The 11 previous teams all lost that series. The Bucks are 13-5 ATS in their past 18 Friday games.
Miami Heat
After the Bucks tied it, the Heat still had plenty of time to win. Jimmy Butler got off a contested fadeaway shot from the baseline as time expired and it missed – but Davis called a ticky-tack foul on Giannis for barely touching Butler in the midsection after the shot was released. Butler was given two free throws with zeroes on the clock and no other players allowed to be standing along the lane. Butler’s first free throw bounced around a bit before going in and that was that. He did have to take the second one and made that too.
It was only the third playoff game ever end with a game-winning, buzzer-beater free throw. Miami is the first No. 5 seed to take a 2-0 series lead over a No. 1 seed, and the Heat are the lowest seed to start a postseason 6-0 since seeding began in 1983-84. Butler didn’t have a great game overall, at least offensively, with 13 points on 3-for-8 shooting. However, the Heat had seven players score in double figures led by Goran Dragic’s 23. Miami’s bench massively outplayed Milwaukee’s as well. The Heat are 5-0 ATS following an ATS victory.
MIL
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