Edgar Chaput
February 28, 2023

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso: UFC 285 Odds, Prediction

It’s been a long, successful defence of the belt for Shevchenko. She’s held on to the coveted prize for over four years since earning it in December 2018. Seven fighters have tried to get their gloves onto the belt but all have failed. Is Alexa Grasso the one to do it?

Much chalk is written down for the Kyrgyzstan native. She is perched as a -725 favourite on the MMA odds to Grasso’s +455.

Valentina Shevchenko -880
Alexa Grasso +540

Valentina Shevchenko UFC 285 Betting Analysis

The journey as champion began at UFC 231. At the time, some funky scheduling for main card attractions almost made it so that Valentina Shevchenko’s bout didn’t happen against the champion at the time, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Fate ordained that it should, and a unanimous decision meant that the fighter from the former USSR was the new UFC flyweight title holder.

Since then, no one has been able to topple her. UFC 238 (Jessica Eye), UFC on ESPN+ 14 (Liz Carmouche), UFC 247 (Katlyn Chookagian), UFC 255 (Jennifer Maia), UFC 261 (Jessica Andrade), UFC 266 (Lauren Murphy), and UFC 275 (Taila Santos) have all come to pass. Shevchenko still stands tallest amongst her peers. The 34-year-old, Muay Thai battler has conquered opponents mostly via TKO and decision. Regardless, the point is no one has gotten the better of her in a long, long time.

She holds the narrowest of reach advantages over Grasso (0.5 greater for both leg and arm). For her career, even before earning the current belt, 75 per cent of her victories came by impressing the judges. She can stand the pain quite a while, as her fights last almost four more minutes than Saturday’s challenger. While she doesn’t land nearly as many significant strikes per minute (3.19 to 5.14), she’s difficult to lay a fist on, only suffering 1.9 every 60 seconds, thanks to a 63 per cent defence.

Alexa Grasso UFC 285 Betting Analysis

The flyweight portion of Grasso’s career began just before the pandemic. In January 2020, hours before UFC 246, she missed weight and, in the process, made the move to flyweight.

Since then, the Mexican native has won all four of her tilts (a couple had to be cancelled). She took care of Ji Yeon Kim in August 2020 at UFC Fight Night 175 via unanimous decision. The judges declared emphatic support for her efforts at UFC 258 in February 2021 against Maycee Barber. Joanne Wood went down via ear-naked choke at UFC on ESPN 33 in March 2022. Grasso scored yet another unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 212 against Viviane Araujo in October of last year.

Like her counterpart, the majority of her successes are thanks to judge decisions (67 per cent). That said, she conquers foes twice as often through KO/TKO, with 27 per cent of her tilts concluding in that fashion to Shevchenko’s 14 per cent. As is so often the case when a fighter is able to land so many significant strikes in a minute (5.14), Grasso is open to attack quite a bit as well, judging by the 4.02 she takes. Her defence is comparable however at 61 per cent.