UFC Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh fight prediction
Rounding out the night will be a main-event bout in Flyweight division between the 6th-ranked Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno, who was once a UFC champion, hopes to get back in the title picture, while Kavanagh sets his sights on his first signature UFC win.
UFC Fight Night odds: Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
The current MMA odds for the main event have Moreno as the -225 favourite, with Kavanagh coming back at +172. Other betting markets are even tighter. The fight to end inside the distance is listed at -118, while the fight to go the distance has odds of -108.
If you prefer to bet on a specific method of victory, backing Moreno to win by any finish carries odds of +170, while backing Kavanagh to win by any finish gives you much bigger odds of +450.
Brandon Moreno UFC stats
Moreno enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-9-2 and 11-6-2 in the UFC. He last fought in the UFC back in December 2025, a fight that resulted in a loss by KO/TKO against Tatsuro Taira.
Throughout his career, Moreno has been a balanced fighter. He averages 3.89 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 44%. This is compared to his grappling, where he averages 1.47 takedowns every 15 minutes, has a takedown accuracy of 44% and defends 64% of takedown attempts.
Recently, Moreno has been inconsistent, going 5-5 across his last 10 UFC fights.
Lone’er Kavanagh UFC stats
Kavanagh enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. He suffered his first career loss in his most recent fight, losing to Charles Johnson by KO/TKO back in August 2025.
While Kavanagh only has four UFC fights under his belt, it is clear that he employs a balanced fighting style. He averages 4.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. In terms of his grappling, he is averaging 1.79 takedowns every 15 minutes, has a takedown accuracy of 50% and boasts an elite takedown defence of 88%.
UFC Fight Night 268: Who Will Win Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh?
As good as Moreno has been throughout his UFC career, his recent struggles make him too risky to back against Kavanagh, who profiles as an up-and-coming fighter. Of course, Kavanagh is coming off his first-ever loss, but the balance he has shown in his short UFC career would suggest he can go toe-to-toe with the former UFC champion.
Though early in his UFC career, Kavanagh has actually shown better striking volume and grappling ability compared to Moreno. Keep in mind that Kavanagh has far fewer UFC fights, but given the promise he has shown, backing Kavanagh to win (+172) is the play.