UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas
Namajunas is a -250 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Ribas is a +200 underdog.
Amanda Ribas UFC Fight Night Odds
Alexa Grasso is the current UFC flyweight champion, and Ribas is ranked No. 8 in that division and No. 7 in the strawweight division as she generally has split her career between the 115 and 125-pound classes. The 30-year-old Ribas, from Brazil, is 12-4 in a pro career dating to 2014.
Ribas’ UFC debut came in June 2019 and she beat Emily Whitmire by second-round submission (rear-naked choke). Ribas won her first four bouts in the organization but is 3-3 since and has alternated losses and wins. She comes off a third-round TKO (spectacular spinning wheel kick and punches) victory over Luana Pinheiro last November which earned Ribas the Performance of the Night award – her first in the UFC. Pinheiro largely dominated early in the bout.
This will be the first time Ribas is in a UFC main event, and she has only been in a scheduled five-rounder once back in 2016. If this gets past Round 3, it will be a first for her.
“I think I can stop her with my distance and striking, so I think that I will knock Rose out in the third round,” said Ribas. “I like fighting in the Apex because it’s a small cage and I am close to my opponent, but the lack of an audience is a bad thing. I like the cage but then I miss out on having the audience there.”
The 5-foot-3 Ribas has a reach of 66 inches and her fights average 11:18. She lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute with 42 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.33 with 63 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 1.99 per 15 minutes with 51 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 87 per cent.
Ribas has three losses by KO/TKO and one by decision with five wins via the judges, four by submission and three by KO/TKO. For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by points at +600, followed by submission at +700 and KO/TKO/DQ at +1200 with a draw at +5000.
Rose Namajunas UFC Fight Night Odds
The 31-year-old Namajunas, from Milwaukee, is a two-time UFC strawweight champion who isn’t ranked in that division or flyweight because she’s new to the latter. Namajunas is ranked as the No. 8 female pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC and Ribas is not on that list.
“Thug” Namajunas won the strawweight belt the first time in November 2017 with a first-round TKO (punches) of Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Namajunas defended the title successfully against the same opponent in April 2018 but lost it in May 2019 vs. Jessica Andrade. A rematch win over Andrade in a non-title bout in July 2020 got Namajunas another title shot, this time against Weili Zhang in April 2021. Namajunas won that by first-round KO (head kick) and then the immediate rematch about six months later by split decision.
Following a split-decision loss to Carla Esparza at UFC 274 to lose the belt, Namajunas moved up to the 125-pound division in 2023 and faced No. 3-ranked Manon Fiorot at UFC Fight Night 226 in Paris. Fiorot won by unanimous decision. Despite suffering a broken right hand in the first round of the bout, Namajunas was very competitive and was the winner of Round 3 on two judges’ cards, but it was too late as Fiorot owned the first two rounds.
Namajunas said she expects to finish Ribas: “She’s always got some good energy. She comes to fight. She’s going to give it her all every second of the fight. That’s probably the biggest danger that she poses. She’s got some good techniques but overall, I just feel like I’m better everywhere. I know I’m better everywhere. I just have to maintain focus and discipline and just stick to the game plan and get her out of there when I can.”
The 5-foot-5 Namajunas has a reach of 65 inches and her fights average 13:42. She lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute with 42 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.33 with 63 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.99 per 15 minutes with 51 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 87 per cent.
She has four losses via the judges, one by submission and one by KO/TKO with five wins by submission, four by decision and two by KO/TKO. Namajunas is tied for second among UFC women’s strawweights for most finishes with five and is also second for most submission wins with three. But, again, this is not in that division. For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO at +110, followed by decision at +220 and submission at +850.
The over-under is 4.5 rounds, and it’s +145 to do the distance with no at -175.