UFC Fight Night Austin Odds, Prediction: Rob Font vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Payton Matthews
November 30, 2023

Figueiredo is a short +125 underdog for his non-title bantamweight bout against Rob Font, who is a -150 favourite to win on the MMA odds.

Rob Font UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

One quick note about this card being held in Austin, the home of the University of Texas. That state is football crazy and this event would have been completely ignored in the city if the Big 12 Championship Game between No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 7 Texas – played in Dallas – had a primetime kickoff as the UFC main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, but that game is at noon. If the Horns win to possibly earn a College Football Playoff spot (find out Sunday), Austin will be a giant party on Saturday night and the crowd for this card could be very, very raucous.

The 36-year-old Font, from Boston, is 20-7 in a career that dates to 2011 and is ranked No. 8 in the bantamweight division. He was a former featherweight champion in CES MMA. Font’s career might be nearing an end as he enters having lost three of four, although those defeats were to stellar competition in Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera and the legendary Jose Aldo. Font lost all three by decision, with the Sandhagen bout in August his most recent visit to the Octagon. Font stepped in on a few weeks of notice after Umar Nurmagomedov was forced to withdraw with an injury. It wasn’t particularly close as all three judges scored it 50-45.

Font has gone the distance on 13 different occasions in his career and carries a 7-6 record in those bouts. The combined record of the seven total fighters to beat Font career is 180-56-1, a winning percentage of .762. The 5-foot-8 Font has a reach of 71 inches, and his fights average 12:42. He lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.70 with 57 per cent defence. Font’s takedown average is 0.96 per 15 minutes with 37 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 46 per cent.

He has landed 1,151 significant strikes overall as a UFC bantamweight, placing him second on the promotion’s all-time list at 135 pounds. Only Pedro Munhoz has connected with more (1,211). Font’s 10 victories in the division are sixth-most in divisional history behind Aljamain Sterling (14), T.J. Dillashaw (13), Vera (13), Raphael Assuncao (12) and Urijah Faber (11). Font’s six knockout wins are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Dillashaw (seven).

Overall, he has nine wins by KO/TKO, seven by decision and four by submission. Font has yet to be beaten by KO/TKO with one submission and those six losses via the judges. For Saturday, Font’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +160, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +300 and submission at +1600. A draw is +6600.

Deiveson Figueiredo UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

Figueiredo, 35, is from Brazil with a career professional record of 21-3 with one draw, and he’s ranked No. 2 in the flyweight division but unranked as a bantamweight because this will be his first fight at 135 pounds in the UFC.

“Deus da Guerra,” which means God of War, is a two-time UFC flyweight king. He actually first “won” the interim belt on Leap Day 2020 via second-round TKO of Joe Benavidez, but Figueiredo weighed in 2.5 pounds above the limit and forfeited 30 per cent of his purse to Benavidez and wasn’t eligible to win the title. They had a rematch five months later and Figueiredo won by first-round technical submission to get the interim belt.

Figueiredo’s first defence was a first-round submission (guillotine choke) of Alex Perez in November 2020. The Brazilian fought a fourth time that year in December on a quick turnaround vs. Brandon Moreno and it was a majority draw. Figueiredo had a point taken from him by the referee in the third round for a low blow and it was costly as it turned two 48–47 scorecards in his favor into even 47–47 decisions.

Here’s guessing that Figueiredo is tired of fighting Moreno because they have fought three more times since, all for the title: Moreno won by third-round submission in June 2021, Figueiredo rebounded with a unanimous decision victory in January 2022, and then lost in his most recent bout in January this year by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage). Figueiredo was scheduled to face Manel Kape this July at UFC 290, but Figueiredo withdrew after he was not medically cleared.

Perhaps tiring of facing the same guy and having trouble cutting weigh is why he is moving up to bantamweight. Figueiredo and Moreno are the only opponents in UFC history to face each other four times. Figueiredo’s 10 victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Demetrious Johnson (13) and Benavidez (13). Figueiredo’s seven stoppage victories are tied with Johnson for most in divisional history and his four knockout victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for second most.

The 5-foot-5 Figueiredo has a reach of 68 inches, and his fights average 11:55. He lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.50 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.44 per 15 minutes, and his takedown defence 57 per cent.

Overall, Figueiredo has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and four by decision – he has one loss by each. The submission victories have been varied: five guillotine chokes, one armbar, one arm-triangle choke and one rear-naked choke. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +325, followed by submission at +500 and KO/TKO/DQ at +600. That the fight goes the full three rounds is +100 with no at -130.

Figueiredo seems at a disadvantage in a way because he only prepared for the style and game plan of Moreno for the past three years until obviously signing on for this one.