UFC Fight Night Austin Odds, Prediction: Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Jordan Ramsay
November 30, 2023

A rising star in the UFC, Tsarukyan opened as a -300 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Dariush is listed as a +240 underdog.

Beneil Dariush

The 34-year-old Dariush has amassed a 22-5 record with one draw since his professional MMA debut in 2009. His 16 wins in the UFC’s lightweight division is tied with Gleison Tibau for third-most in division history. A win on Saturday would tie him with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone for second and he has a legitimate shot to break Jim Miller’s all-time lightweight wins record of 22.

“Benny” has proven to be a bit of a Swiss Army knife throughout his career, earning nine victories by decision, eight by submission and five by knockout. He was on the verge of title contention before suffering a loss against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 289 in June. The loss snapped an eight-fight win streak for Dariush that included victories over names like Drew Dober, Tony Ferguson, Mateusz Gamrot and others. During the win streak he earned one Fight of the Night bonus and four Performance of the Night bonuses.

Dariush began training Brazilian jiu-jitsu in 2007 and earned his black belt five years later. The discipline has been a staple of his fight strategy. Over his UFC career, he has over an hour of top control with a 26:9 takedown ratio, which is sixth-most in division history. Dariush is sixth all-time among lightweights in takedown attempts (12), with five attempts ending the fight. He’s also a strong wrestler, stuffing 38 of 47 takedown attempts (80.9 per cent rating), which is fourth among lightweights.

Dariush has a second black belt in Muay Thai and earned one of only 10 spinning back-fist knockouts in UFC history when he defeated Scott Holtzman in August 2020.

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan, a 27-year-old Armenian-Russian, has a 20-3 MMA record since turning professional in 2015 and he is considered a strong future UFC contender. He was slated to face Renato Moicano earlier this year, but Moicano pulled out with an injury and no replacement was found. A win in that fight would have pushed Tsarukyan into the top five of the division and put him close to a title shot against current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.

Tsarukyan’s UFC debut in 2019 actually came against Makhachev and resulted in a Fight of the Night bonus. It was a fast-paced fight that showcased both fighter’s elite wrestling ability, but Tsarukyan eventually lost by unanimous decision. Overall, Tsarukyan has eight career wins by knockout, seven by decision and five by submission. He’s earned two Fight of the Night bonuses against Makhachev and Gamrot and two Performance of the Night bonuses against Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez.

Since the loss to Makhachev, Tsarukyan has won seven of his last eight fights, including his last two against Damir Ismagulov and Joaquim Silva. Tsarukyan relies heavily on his pace and cardio to control fights. He’s a relentless striker, finishing with a plus-34 striking differential against Matt Frevola, plus-57 against Silva and plus-58 against Davi Ramos.

Tsarukyan is one of the more well-rounded fighters in the division as he is also a strong wrestler. After nine career UFC fights, he is already seventh among active lightweights with 28 takedowns, 10 of which came against Frevola.