UFC Fight Night 266 Preview, Prediction: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
UFC Fight Night 266 is next up on the schedule and is set to begin this weekend with another loaded fight card. The event will take place on Saturday, February 7 and will be hosted by the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight card will have a total of 13 fights, which will feature a main event between the ninth-ranked Mario Bautista and the 11th-ranked Vinicius Oliveira in the bantamweight division.
The winner of the main event will likely move up in the bantamweight division and will be one step closer to asking for a bantamweight title shot.
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira Odds and Betting Trends
When looking at the MMA odds for this main event, we see that Bautista is the clear favourite, with odds of (-165). This means that Oliveira is the underdog and has odds of (+135).
Other betting markets would suggest that this fight will end inside the distance (-185), compared to going the distance (+130).
More specifically, Bautista has odds of (+175) to win by KO/TKO or submission, while Oliveira has odds of (+200) to win by KO/TKO or submission.
Additional markets suggest that this fight will go under 4.5 rounds (-150), as opposed to over 4.5 rounds (+115).
Mario Bautista
Bautista enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3, including 10-3 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision back in October 2025.
He has shown some balance in the UFC, averaging 5.58 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 48 per cent and 1.48 takedowns every 15 minutes. Further, his takedown accuracy is 32 per cent, and his takedown defence is 54 per cent.
In terms of his form, Bautista has won eight of his last 10 UFC fights, with five wins coming by decision and three fights coming by any finish.
Vinicius Oliveira
Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-3 and 5-0 in the UFC. His most recent UFC fight resulted in a win against Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision back in July 2025.
Similar to Bautista, Oliveira has also been a balanced fighter, averaging 5.28 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 43 per cent and 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50 per cent, and he has a takedown defence of 80 per cent.
During his five-fight UFC winning streak, Oliveira has won a total of three times by decision and has won two times by finish.
UFC Fight Night 266 Prediction: Who Will Win Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira?
While Bautista is the favourite, he does not look to be a fighter that can be trusted. His form is good, but Oliveira has the advantage in both striking volume and grappling. Further, Oliveira has been perfect in the UFC and has dominated all of his opponents.
Bautista has had issues defending takedowns, especially in his most recent fight, when he was taken down 11 times. While Oliveira may not have the same success, his grappling is sure to play a vital role. Therefore, because Oliveira has yet to show much weakness, backing Oliveira to win (+135) is the move.