UFC Fight Night 234 Odds, Prediction: Ankalaev vs. Walker

The main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 234 card from Las Vegas is a non-title bout and rematch at light heavyweight between contenders Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.

Ankalaev is a -550 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Walker set as a +400 underdog.

Magomed Ankalaev UFC Fight Night 234 Odds

Alex Pereira is the current UFC light heavyweight champion, and the 31-year-old Russian Ankalaev (17-1-1) is ranked third. He is a former light heavyweight champion of World Fighting Championship Akhmat and also won the Akhmat FC Light Heavyweight Grand Prix in 2016.

Ankalaev’s lone loss came ironically enough in his UFC debut in in March 2018 against Paul Craig, who prevailed by third-round submission (triangle choke). Ankalaev also has a draw on his record, coming last December against Jan Błachowicz (currently ranked No. 4 in the division) for the vacant light heavyweight title. That ended in a controversial split draw as nearly everyone in attendance thought Ankalaev won.

He returned the Octagon at UFC 294 last October to face Johnny Walker in a non-title fight, and it ended a no-contest after an illegal knee by Ankalaev and the cage-side doctor ruling that Walker was unable to continue the fight. Walker wanted to keep fighting and even tried to engage with Ankalaev, but security and even UFC president Dana White got involved.

“After that shot, he was actually the one trying to tell me that was an illegal blow – so he was conscious enough and in his mind enough to say, ‘Hey dude, that was illegal,’” Ankalaev said this week. “And then when they stopped the fight all of a sudden he started playing this whole thing of like, ‘Oh, I can’t fight anymore’ or whatever. But I’m pretty sure that he was basically just trying to throw the fight because he seemed to be just fine.”

Ankalaev’s 11-fight UFC unbeaten streak at light heavyweight is the longest active streak in the division and second longest in divisional history behind all-time great Jon Jones’ run of 18 in a row.

The 6-foot-3 Ankalaev has a reach of 75 inches and his fights average 11:40. He lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.20 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.07 per 15 minutes with 31 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 86 per cent – that’s the second-highest rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Aleksandar Rakic (90 per cent).

Ankalaev has nine wins by KO/TKO and eight by decision; he is the only light heavyweight in UFC history to earn multiple knockout victories stemming from kicks. He did it three times, coming against Marcin Prachnio, Dalcha Lungiambula and Ion Cutelaba. The Russian’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at -225, followed by decision at +450 and submission at +700. A draw is +5000.

Johnny Walker UFC Fight Night 234 Odds

The 31-year-old Walker, from Brazil despite about the most American-sounding name possible, is 21-7 in his career and ranked seventh in the division. He earned a spot on the UFC roster by beating Henrique da Silva in August 2018 in Dana White’s Contender Series.

Walker had won three straight fights before that controversial no-contest in the first bout against Magomed Ankalaev. That includes a first-round TKO (punches) of Paul Craig, the only fighter to beat Ankalaev. Walker finally has come to grips that the first bout should have been stopped, comparing Ankalaev’s illegal knee to a “car crash.”

“We train so hard for that moment,” he recounted. “It’s hard, but sometimes it is what it is. The doctor made the smart decision for me, because I’m never gonna make the smart decision. I was gonna go keep fighting.”

The 6-foot-6 Walker has a mammoth reach of 82 inches and his fights average only 6:58. He lands 3.87 strikes per minute with 56 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.64 with 45 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.50 per 15 minutes with 100 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 57 per cent.

Walker’s four-fight UFC unbeaten streak at light heavyweight is tied for the fifth-longest active streak in the division behind Ankalaev (11), Carlos Ulberg (five), Khalil Rountree (five) and Alonzo Menifield (five).

Walker has 16 wins by KO/TKO, three by submission and two by decision with four losses by KO/TKO, two by decision and one by submission. He has finished six of his seven UFC wins by first-round knockout. Walker is one of 10 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a spinning back fist, and one of two ever to win a light heavyweight bout by knockout stemming from a flying knee. Finally, Walker is one of five overall fighters in modern UFC history to win a light heavyweight bout by knockout in 15 seconds or less. He did that against Justin Ledet in February 2019. Amazingly, Walker has 17 first-round finishes in his career.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +700, followed by decision at +1400 and submission at +1800. That the fight goes the full five rounds is +333 with no at -550.

UFC Fight Night 234 Predictions: Ankalaev vs. Walker

Ankalaev to win at -550 parlayed with inside distance at -550 gets us a reasonable price.