UFC Fight Night 197 Odds: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction
A pair of Top-5 featherweights headlines UFC Fight Night 197’s main event in Las Vegas on Saturday as former champ and No. 1 contender Max Holloway steps into the Octagon to face No. 3 Yair Rodriguez. This fight was originally scheduled to go down in July, before Holloway was forced to pull out of the fight due to injury.
Holloway is a heavy -740 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Rodriguez enters as a +470 underdog.
Max Holloway UFC Fight Night 197 Odds
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Holloway (22-6 MMA record) since facing Dustin Poirier in 2019. Holloway won the UFC featherweight championship with a third-round knockout against Jose Aldo at UFC 212 in 2017 and successfully defended the belt with another third-round knockout against Aldo at UFC 218 later that year.
After a second title defence against Brian Ortega, Holloway moved up to lightweight. Holloway would go on to lose to Poirier by unanimous decision. Moving back down to featherweight, Holloway successfully defended his belt against Frankie Edgar, before losing it to current champ Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 245 in 2019. He also lost the rematch by split decision. Holloway last fought in January, earning Fight of the Night honours in a unanimous decision win against Calvin Kattar.
“Blessed” will almost certainly guarantee himself a trilogy fight against Volkanovski for the lightweight belt if he wins this fight, so there’s a lot on the line. Holloway is a high volume striker whose intense makes up for a lack of power. He averages 7.26 significant strikes per minute on 46 per cent accuracy. For comparison, Rodriguez averages 4.33 significant strikes with with 45 per cent accuracy.
Holloway isn’t a great offensive wrestler, so expect him to keep this fight standing up. He likes to take his time and build a faster pace as the fight goes on. Look for Holloway to be dangerous in the latter rounds. Holloway hasn’t finished a fight in less than 3.5 rounds since 2015, which makes it likely this fight either goes the distance or ends in the fourth or fifth round.
Yair Rodriguez UFC Fight Night 197 Odds
It’s been just over two years since Rodriguez’s (13-2 MMA record) last fight. Because of injuries and suspension issues, Rodriguez has only fought three times in the last four years. His first UFC loss came in 2017, falling to Edgar by second-round TKO because of a doctor’s stoppage.
In what little we’ve seen of Rodriguez in the last few years, he’s looked good. He knocked out the “Korean Zombie” with a fifth-round elbow in late 2019, before his next fight ended in a no contest 15 seconds into round one because of Rodriguez’s accidental eye poke on Jeremy Stephens. Rodriguez won the rematch against Stephens by unanimous decision in late 2019, his last action in the Octagon.
“El Pantera” is an explosive striker who excels with his kicking game. Low kicks, which Holloway has struggled to face in the past, are a specialty for Rodriguez. His two-inch reach advantage could be a big factor as he deals with Holloway’s aggressive striking attack. Expect this fight to stay standing up as both fighters average less than one takedown per 15 minutes.
Rodriguez’s best strategy in this fight is to keep moving and stay evasive. The longer he can successfully move in and out of Holloway’s boxing range, the better. If Rodriguez can get to the fourth and fifth rounds relatively unscathed, he holds enough power for a potential stoppage win.
UFC Fight Night 197 Prediction: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
These are two similar fighters. They’re both elite strikers, they both build as the fight goes on and they’ll both want this fight standing up. Out of the shadow for so long, people tend to sleep on Rodriguez, but he’s a dynamic fighter that is a legit threat to win this fight. For my money though, it’s Holloway in this one. A longer fight benefits Holloway’s high volume striking strategy. Holloway wins by unanimous decision.