UFC 326 Preview and Prediction: Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
The first UFC event of March is a big one, as UFC 326 is scheduled for Saturday, March 7 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action will be streamed on Paramount+ and will begin at 5 p.m. ET.
The UFC 326 card will consist of 13 fights across the early preliminary card, preliminary card, and main event. One of the featured fights on the main card will be fought in the middleweight division between seventh-ranked Caio Borralho and eighth-ranked Reinier de Ridder.
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder Odds and Betting Trends
When analyzing the betting odds for this fight, it is clear that Borralho is the favourite. Currently, Borralho has odds of -290, while De Ridder is listed at +215.
Other markets suggest this fight will go the distance (-144), instead of ending by finish (+112).
In terms of an exact method of victory, the most likely result is for Borralho to win by points (+140). Backing Borralho to win by KO/TKO or submission has odds of +190, while backing De Ridder to win by KO/TKO or submission would provide a nice return at a juicy price of +550.
Caio Borralho
Borralho enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-2 and 9-1 in the UFC. His most recent fight resulted in his first-ever UFC loss. This was by unanimous decision against Nassourdine Imavov back in September 2025.
Borralho’s UFC career has only been about four and a half years, but he has displayed a balanced fighting style. He averages 3.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56 per cent.
In terms of grappling, he averages 1.28 takedowns every 15 minutes, while boasting a takedown accuracy of 48 per cent and a takedown defence of 76 per cent.
Reinier de Ridder
De Ridder enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-3 and 4-1 in the UFC. He suffered his first UFC loss in his most recent fight, that being against Brendan Allen by KO/TKO back in October 2025.
While De Ridder has had a shorter UFC career compared to Borralho, he has also showcased balance in his approach. Standing up, he averages 2.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53 per cent. On the mat, he averages 2.68 takedowns every 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy of 30 per cent and a takedown defence of 50 per cent.
UFC 326 Prediction: Who will win Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder?
Given that Borralho is the overwhelming favourite in this fight, I’m looking at markets other than the moneyline. Though I expect him to win, I would rather take this fight to go the distance. Borralho has seen seven of his 10 UFC fights go to the judges.
Despite De Ridder’s high finish rate, Borralho has never lost by finish in the UFC and De Ridder has only lost once by finish at this level. Therefore, backing this fight to go the distance (-144) feels like a strong value play.