UFC 309 Odds, Prediction: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Bo Nickal is a heavy -1000 favourite with Paul Craig at +650 on the MMA odds for the scheduled three-rounder.

Bo Nickal UFC 309 Odds

The 28-year-old Nickal, who fights out of Pennsylvania, is 6-0 in a professional MMA career only dating to 2022 and unranked in the middleweight division, which is currently topped by Dricus Du Plessis. Nickal was one of the great wrestlers in Penn State University history as he was a three-time Big Ten champion and three-time Division I champion. He earned the 2019 Big Ten Athlete of the Year Award and that year’s Dan Hodge Trophy, which goes to the nation’s top wrestler. He tried to make the 2020 USA Olympic Team but came up short as a finalist at the team trials.

Nickal largely continued wrestling until deciding to try his hand at MMA, making his amateur debut against David Conley in September 2021. His professional debut came on June 3, 2022, in Jorge Masvidal’s iKon Fighting Championship, and Nickal beat John Noland by first-round KO (punches). Nickal got his big break at Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2022 and beat Zachary Borrego by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). Usually, that means a UFC contract but due to inexperience, Nickal had to fight again in the Contender Series in September 2022 and after beating Donovan Beard by first-round submission (triangle choke), Nickal got his UFC deal.

His first five professional bouts ended in Round 1, but Nickal had to go to Round 2 to beat Cody Brundage by submission (rear-naked choke) in April. Yet Nickal was unhappy with the win, saying he was a little “embarrassed” given he was expected to dominate. Most believe Nickal will get ranked with another win Saturday and then draw his first Top 10 opponent.

Nickal’s fights average a scant 2:49, and the southpaw’s reach is 76 inches. He lands 1.64 significant strikes per minute with 62 per cent accuracy and absorbs 0.50 with 70 per cent defence. His takedown average is 7.46 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 37 per cent.

Overall, Nickal has four wins by submission and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at -155, followed by submission at +200 and decision at +850. To finish in Round 1, he’s -135.

“I think a lot of people know Paul Craig, and he’s had some really big wins in his career and he’s a dangerous opponent,” Nickal said recently. “He’s finished guys that have been champions and fought for the belt, so this is definitely the most dangerous fight I’ve had to this point and a big step up. But I feel prepared and ready to just continue to build my reputation.”

Paul Craig UFC 309 Odds

The soon-to-be 37-year-old Craig is from Scotland and unranked in the middleweight division with a career MMA mark of 17-8 with one draw. He’s a former BAMMA light heavyweight champion with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Craig has been in the UFC since a second-round submission of Henrique da Silva in December 2016.

“Bearjew” is trending in the wrong direction with four losses in his past five. He last was in the Octagon in May and beaten via second-round KO (punches) by Caio Borralho. Craig has only been at middleweight for his past three fights with a 1-2 mark.

Career-wise, Craig certainly has fought a higher level of competition than his opponent as Craig has a win and a draw against UFC Hall of Famer and former world champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua as well as a victory over future lightweight champion Jamahal Hill. But those results were all 2021 and before.

Craig’s only win in the past five was a second-round TKO (elbows) of Andre Muniz in July 2023 in Craig’s UFC middleweight debut after competing at light heavyweight. The Scot has five losses overall by KO/TKO, two by submission and one by decision compared to has 13 wins by submission and four by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +1100, followed by decision at +1400 and KO/TKO/DQ at +2000. To win in Round 1, he’s +2000.

The over-under is 1.5 rounds with the under a -185 favourite. That it goes the distance is -1000 with no at +600. That either fighter wins by KO/TKO/DQ is -185, followed by submission at +200 and going the distance at +600.

Craig’s fights average 7:58 and his reach is 76 inches, same as Nickal but Craig will have a two-inch height advantage. He lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.97 with 44 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.68 per 15 minutes with 20 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 37 per cent.

UFC 309 Prediction: Nickal vs. Craig

Not much betting value on Nickal to win, so we recommend going the distance at the longshot price of +600. In a five-round bout between these two, that seems very unlikely. Maybe in three.