UFC 306 Odds, Prediction: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O’Malley opened as a -140 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Merab Dvalishvili is a +115 underdog.
Sean O’Malley UFC 306 Odds
O’Malley claimed the bantamweight belt with a second-round TKO victory over Aljamain Sterling last August at UFC 292. The 29-year-old defended the belt with a unanimous decision victory against Marlon Vera at UFC 299 in March, earning his second straight Performance of the night bonus.
“Suga” is 18-1 overall (one no contest) since his professional MMA debut in 2015. He’s built a lot of his success from his talented striking ability, combining elite quickness and fundamentals with smart timing and strategy. He also has excellent footwork and a knack for finishing that has led to 12 career victories by knockout
O’Malley will hold a five-inch reach advantage in this fight, which is significant considering he’s already proven to be a fast striker with a high fight IQ. He’s also comfortable in close, using his footwork to find combinations. While O’Malley prefers to rely on his striking, he’s a capable grappler who can work in a guillotine when needed.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler fight, so I expect O’Malley to use his footwork and range to keep this a standup affair. He’ll likely push the pace early in an attempt to wear down Dvalishvili and minimize the risk of late takedowns. O’Malley should have the edge in points if this goes the distance.
Merab Dvalishvili UFC 306 Odds
Dvalishvili actually began his UFC career with two consecutive losses, although the first was split decision and the second earned Fight of the Night. Things have turned around for the 33-year-old, who is a perfect 10-0 since 2018. His last three fights were all won by dominant unanimous decisions against notable UFC stars Jose Aldo (August 2022), Petr Yan (March 2023) and Henry Cejudo (February 2024).
Overall, “The Machine” is 17-4 since turning pro in 2014. He’s an elite grappler and he’s arguably the most well conditioned fighter in the division. Dvalishvili exhausts his opponents to break them down and he’s shown continued improvement in his striking. He’s not afraid to go the distance, with 13 of his wins coming by decision and he has experience fighting a full five rounds against Yan.
Dvalishvili’s main strength will always be wrestling, but he’s also a capable striker, with his 1,736 total strikes landed ranking first all-time in the bantamweight division. It’s not necessarily his overbearing power that makes him a nightmare grappler for opponents, it’s more of his conditioning and ability to wear opponents down.
While Dvalishvili can hold his own as a boxer, he’ll likely try to make this a ground-and-pound fight, while his cardio makes him a threat to finish things at any moment. I expect fireworks right from the start, with Dvalishvili getting at O’Malley early and using his grappling skills to his advantage.
UFC 306 Prediction: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
I think both fighters will go hard from the start, so I’m not expecting this fight to go five rounds. While Dvalishvili has improved his overall fight game, O’Malley is still the more balanced fighter and that will give him the edge on Saturday.
