Brian Lopes is a -190 favourite on the MMA odds and Brian Ortega is +160.

Brian Ortega UFC 306 Odds

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC featherweight champion, and the 33-year-old Ortega, from California but also with Mexican citizenship, is ranked No. 3 in the division with a career MMA record of 16-3 with one no-contest. He’s a former Resurrection Fighting Alliance featherweight champion.

“T-City” has gotten a title shot in the UFC, losing to Max Holloway in December 2018 at UFC 231. Ortega entered that unbeaten in his career but has since dropped three of five including that fight. He was last in the Octagon in February and beat Yair Rodriguez by third-round submission (arm-triangle choke). It was Ortega’s first fight since losing to Rodriguez via first-round TKO in July 2022 as Ortega suffered a dislocated shoulder late in Round 1 and wasn’t able to continue. That’s why he had such a long timeframe in between bouts.

The 5-foot-8 Ortega has a reach of 69 inches and his bouts average 12:47. He lands 4.07 significant strikes per minute with 38 per cent accuracy and absorbs 6.54 with 49 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.17 per 15 minutes with 27 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 57 per cent.

Ortega has two losses by KO/TKO and one by decision, while eight of his wins are by submission, five by the judges and three by KO/TKO. Ortega’s seven stoppage victories in UFC featherweight competition are tied with Ricardo Lamas for second-most in divisional history behind Holloway (11). Ortega’s four submission victories are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Charles Oliveira (six). Ortega is the only fighter in UFC history to earn four consecutive third-round stoppage victories, which he did from 2015-17 against Thiago Tavares, Diego Brandao, Clay Guida and Renato Carneiro.

“You have someone who refuses to lose [on the ground] and refuses to lose in the stand up,” Ortega said of facing Lopes. “So when I say that, I bet you have no idea who I’m talking about. That’s why this is an exciting fight. You get to fight almost like a version of yourself. Tad bit different styles, same mentality. … Someone is gonna get finished.”

Ortega’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +350, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +600 and submission at +700. A draw is +5000. That Ortega wins in Round 1 is +750.

Diego Lopes UFC 306 Odds

The 29-year-old Lopes was born in Brazil but now resides in Mexico. He’s ranked No. 13 in the featherweight division with a career record of 25-6. Lopes was originally to face Brian Ortega in late June at UFC 303. It was scheduled for featherweight but was changed to lightweight the day before weigh-ins due to weight cutting issues from Ortega – who was planning to move to lightweight, and Lopes accepted the fight at that weight class. However, the day of the event Ortega withdrew due to illness and was replaced on about four hours of notice by Dan Ige at a catchweight of 165 pounds. Lopes won by unanimous decision.

It will be a heavy Mexican crowd in Las Vegas as part of the Mexican Independence Day theme and that’s motivation enough for Lopes regarding his new home (moved there at age 19): “Here in Mexico I have a family. My family is my Mexican friends, coaches, and training partners. I’ve adapted very well here. Meeting people here in Mexico that share the same dream motivates me greatly. Every time I see a Mexican flag, [it] pushes us to put on a great show to make the people proud.”

The 5-foot-11 Lopes will have a mammoth reach advantage with his at 72 inches, and his bouts average only 7:28. Lopes lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.08 with 39 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.33 per 15 minutes with 25 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 46 per cent.

Lopes has four losses by decision and two by KO/TKO with 12 wins by submission, 10 by KO/TKO and three by decision. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +225, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +250 and submission at +500. To win in Round 1, he’s +350.

That the fight goes the full three rounds is +100 with no at -135. That it ends via decision is +100, by KO/TKO/DQ at +150 and submission +275.

UFC 306 Prediction: Ortega vs. Lopes

Don’t have a preference for method but will back Lopes.