UFC 305 Odds, Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
The UFC 305 main card from Perth, Australia, on Saturday night Eastern time has a very international flavour and that’s the case for a lightweight non-title bout between Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot and New Zealand’s Dan Hooker with Gamrot a -350 favourite on the MMA odds and Hooker +270.
UFC 305 Odds: Mateusz Gamrot
Islam Makhachev is the current UFC lightweight champion (and pound-for-pound king) with the 33-year-old Gamrot ranked No. 5 in the division with a career professional MMA record of 24-2 and one no-contest. He is a former gold medalist at the European Amateur MMA Championships and also a former KSW featherweight and lightweight champion.
“Gamer” faced former UFC champion Rafael Dos Anjos in March at UFC 299 in his most recent bout and won by unanimous decision (scores of 29-28, 29-28, 30-27) for a third straight victory since an October 2022 unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush (currently ranked No. 7 among lightweights).
If Gamrot wins this bout, he believes he might get an interim title shot before the year is out because Makhachev may not fight the rest of the year due to a hand injury.
“I don’t know that he can fight this year. Probably, he will have surgery right in the hand. So, I wish him fast recovery. But, if he can’t fight this year and if I beat the Dan Hooker Saturday night, I think I [am] gonna be the first in the line to fight interim [title] fight. So, we’ll see what’s happening there Saturday night. But, I really believe that I will be next,” said Gamrot, who also said he thinks he is the best wrestler in the division.
If he needs any added motivation here, the fight falls on the birthday of his girlfriend, fellow Pole and former UFC champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who is unable to attend: “So this gonna be like true motivation to me to give her super gift for her birthday, like winning the fight.”
The 5-foot-10 Gamrot, a southpaw, has a reach of 70 inches and his fights average 12:00. He lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.07 with 59 per cent accuracy. His takedown average is 5.28 per 15 minutes with 35 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 90 per cent.
Both career losses are via the judges, while 11 of his wins are by decision, eight by KO/TKO and five by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at -150, followed by submission at +500 and KO/TKO/DQ at +800. A draw is +500. That the fight goes to a split decision is +375 with no at -550.
UFC 305 Odds: Dan Hooker
The 34-year-old Hooker presumably will have the crowd behind him Saturday being from nearby New Zealand and is ranked No. 11 in the lightweight division with a professional record of 23-12. He is a former King in the Ring middleweight kickboxing champion and WKBF X-Rules welterweight champion.
“The Hangman” is just 3-4 in his past seven bouts, but some of those losses were to the sport’s best fighters such as Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier – and Hooker does enter off back-to-back wins over Claudio Puelles and Jalin Turner since a return to the lightweight division.
Hooker hasn’t fought since July 2023. He was scheduled to face Bobby Green in December but withdrew due to injury. Hooker had long wanted to fight alongside his City Kickboxing teammates Israel Adesanya and Kai Kara-France with Adesanya in the main event of UFC 305 in a middleweight title fight vs. Dricus Du Plessis, and Kara-France in the fight leading into that bout against Steve Erceg at flyweight.
The 6-foot Hooker has a reach of 75 inches and his bouts average 9:59. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.76 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.79 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 80 per cent. Hooker defends 87.9 percent of all opponent takedown attempts in UFC lightweight competition, the third-best rate among active fighters in the weight class.
Hookier has six losses by decision, three by submission and three by KO/TKO, while 11 of his wins are by that route, seven by submission and five by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +425, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +800 and submission at +2200.
That the fight does the full three rounds is -250 and no +195.
