UFC 304 Odds, Prediction: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Tom Aspinall claimed the interim strap with an impressive knockout win just 69 seconds into his date with Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 and has now seen each of his past four victories come inside five minutes. Curtis Blaydes is coming off a second-round KO win over Jailton Almeida that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus at UFC 299. Blaydes also claimed a speedy win over Aspinall, when the reigning interim champ suffered a knee injury just 15 seconds into their first meeting last summer at UFC London.
Aspinall leads the way as a strong -400 favourite on the UFC 304 odds and Blaydes trails as a +310 underdog while the odds of this fight going a full five rounds are pegged at a lengthy +450.
Tom Aspinall UFC 304 Odds
Apart from the unfortunate knee injury that led to his loss in his meeting with Curtis Blaydes, Tom Aspinall has dominated the UFC heavyweight division since making his promotional debut four years ago. The 31-year-old Englishman has produced first-round finishes in six of his eight UFC contests to date, claiming Performance of the Night bonuses six times over that stretch, and has seen 11 of his 14 career wins come by knockout.
Indeed, it is an understatement to say that Aspinall likes to storm out of the gate. He has seen just 12:21 of fight time over his eight UFC fights while just three of his 17 career fights have lasted into the second round. In addition to landing an impressive average of 7.72 significant strikes per minute, Aspinall has also demonstrate his ability to change levels if he is unable to earn a speedy win. That was particularly evident in his first-round submission win over Alexander Volkov at UFC London in 2022.
Curtis Blaydes UFC 304 Odds
An impressive power puncher, Curtis Blaydes has seen each of his past three wins come inside two rounds, earning him a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. However, “Razor” has struggled to go toe-to-toe with big hitters. The 33-year-old American lasted just 3:08 before getting knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich at UFC Vegas 71 and was caught napping by Derrick Lewis, who ended his night with one punch in the second round of a UFC Vegas 19 matchup, which he had been dominating.
A former NJCAA collegiate wrestling national champion, Blaydes is a skilled grappler. However, he was taken down nine times by Jailton Almeida, who also racked up 4:39 of control time before Blaydes rebounded to claim the win last time out.
UFC 304 Prediction: Aspinall vs. Blaydes
Fight fans can expect to see fists fly when these heavyweights clash on Saturday night. But while Blaydes has demonstrated his ability to finish with power punches, his struggles to stay on his feet and withstand a heaping helping of significant strikes from a power puncher of Aspinall’s calibre give a clear edge to Aspinall, who will also enjoy the benefit of hometown support on Saturday night.
Prediction: Aspinall by KO/TKO/DQ in first round (+100)