UFC 304 Odds, Prediction: Bobby King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Green is a -120 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Pimblett is +100 for the scheduled non-title three-round bout.

Bobby King Green UFC 304 Odds

Islam Makhachev is the current UFC lightweight champion and Green, a 37-year-old American, is ranked No. 15 in the division with a career MMA record of 32-15 along with one draw and also a no-contest. His pro career began way back in 2008, and Green has fought in several organizations. He is a former King of the Cage lightweight and junior welterweight champion.

“King” – and he recently officially changed his first name from Bobby to that — has never fought for a belt in the UFC and at his age, that’s probably not happening. Green did lose to Makhachev by first-round TKO in February 2022 before Makhachev was crowned king of the lightweight division. Green lost his next bout as well but has just one defeat in his past five: A first-round KO (punches) loss to Jalin Turner last December. Green bounced back in April with a unanimous decision win over Jim Miller, who was left quite bloodied in the entertaining bout. It was a lopsided UD.

This current run, which included choking out former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson at UFC 291 for a $50,000 bonus, is Green’s best in a decade since he won his first four UFC bouts after he came to the organization following the Strikeforce merger.

On Saturday, Green will become just the sixth fighter in history to make 25 or more UFC lightweight appearances. The 5-foot-10 Green has a reach of 71 inches, and his fights average 11:23. He lands 6.61 significant strikes per minute in UFC lightweight competition, the third-best rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Ignacio Bahamondes (7.08) and Justin Gaethje (6.78).

Green’s significant strike accuracy is 52 per cent, and he absorbs 3.75 per minute with 62 per cent defence. Green has landed 1,845 significant strikes in UFC lightweight competition, the most in divisional history, and his 2,072 total strikes are also the most. His takedown average is 1.19 per 15 minutes with 38 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 74 per cent.

Green has eight losses by decision, five by KO/TKO and two by submission with 12 wins by decision, 11 by KO/TKO and nine by submission. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +160 followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +550 and submission +2500. A draw is +5000.

Paddy Pimblett UFC 304 Odds

The 29-year-old Pimblett, unranked in the lightweight division with a 21-3 career MMA record, is from England so he’ll obviously have the crowd in his corner as he lives only about 30 minutes from Co-op Live arena in Manchester. He’s becoming more and more popular as the ex-Cage Warriors featherweight champion first gained a following thanks to his outspoken persona. For example, he will wear some custom-made, extremely bright orange shorts Saturday.

“The Baddy” only made his UFC debut in September 2021 and took out Luigi Vendramini by first-round knockout (punches). Pimblett improved to 5-0 in the organization by beating former interim lightweight champ Tony Ferguson via unanimous decision at UFC 296 this past December. Pimblett had to fight through blood in his throat in the third round thanks to a shot to his nose, so he simply swallowed it, in easily the most significant win of his career. Pimblett, known for his jiu-jitsu abilities, likely gets ranked if he wins Saturday. His five-fight UFC winning streak at lightweight is the second-longest active streak in the division behind the champion Islam Makhachev (12).

The 5-foot-10 Pimblett has a reach of 73 inches, and his fights average 9:12. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.70 with 41 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.98 per 15 minutes with 25 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 56 per cent.

Pimblett has two losses via the judges and one by submission, while nine of his victories are via submission, six by decision and six by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +270, followed by submission at +340 and KO/TKO/DQ at +500. That this fight goes to a split decision is +275 with no at -350. That it goes the distance is -145 and no at +115.

Pimblett is aiming for an early finish: “I’m gonna come out and take his head off his shoulders. So I’m predicting a first-or second-round knockout or submission.”

UFC 304 Prediction: Green vs. Pimblett

Former UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski picked Green to win here, so who are we to argue?