UFC 300 Odds, Prediction: Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan

The rising Tsarukyan is a -200 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Oliveira sitting as a +165 underdog.

Charles Oliveira UFC 300 Odds

Islam Makhachev is the current UFC lightweight champion and pound-for-pound king, and the 34-year-old Oliveira, from Brazil, is ranked as the division’s No. 1 contender with an overall record of 34-9 and one no-contest. UFC president Dana White has said the winner here would likely next get a shot at Makhachev, whom White expects to return in the summer after recovering from an injury.

Oliveira won the UFC lightweight title with a May 2021 win over Michael Chandler and successfully defended the belt against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje before losing to Makhachev by second-round submission (arm-triangle choke) in October 2022.

“Do Bronx” has fought just once since and beat Beneil Dariush by first-round TKO (punches) in June 2023. Oliveira was to fight Makhachev again at UFC 294 last October, but a last-minute cut suffered in training forced him out of that spot. He was replaced by featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who lost in lopsided fashion to Makhachev.

For what it’s worth, Oliveira’s wins over Poirer and Gaethje were by rear-naked choke submission, and Saturday’s opponent Arman Tsarukyan recently indicated that Oliveira is overly reliant on that move.

“People have to be concerned with the way they sell fights,” Oliveira said in response to Tsarukyan. “I’m 14 years in the UFC, having 21 submissions and 10 knockouts and 44 MMA fights. If he really believes all I can do is take my opponent’s back and [get the choke], he better be careful not to get his back taken and submitted. Actually, I don’t care what my opponents say.”

Oliveira’s five guillotine-choke submission victories in UFC competition are most in company history and his three anaconda choke submission victories are also the most.

The 5-foot-10 Oliveira has a reach of 74 inches and his fights average 6:52. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.19 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.32 per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 55 per cent.

Oliveira has 21 overall wins by submission, 10 by KO and three by decision. His 20 stoppage victories in UFC competition are most in company history and his 14 stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are second-most in divisional history behind Jim Miller’s 15. Oliveira’s 16 submission victories are most in company history and his 10 submission victories are tied with Miller for most in lightweight history.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +400, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +700. A draw is +5000. To win in Round 1, Oliveira is +550.

Arman Tsarukyan UFC 300 Odds

Tsarukyan, a 27-year-old from Russia, is 21-3 in his MMA career and ranked fourth in the lightweight division. After bouncing around a few organizations, he made his UFC debut in April 2019 against future champion Islam Makhachev and lost a hard-fought unanimous decision. It earned Tsarukyan a Fight of the Night bonus.

Since then, Tsarukyan is 8-1 with that lone loss in June 2022 to Mateusz Gamrot by unanimous decision. Tsarukyan goes by the nickname “Ahalkalakets,” which is a play on where he was born in Akhalkalaki, Georgia (the country, not the state).

He was last in the Octagon in December and beat Beneil Dariush by first-round KO (knee and punches), the same Dariush who also fought Saturday’s opponent in June 2023 and lost by first-round TKO (punches).

“It’s going to be a crazy fight because [Oliveira] knows wrestling, he knows jiu-jitsu, he knows how to strike,” Tsarukyan said this week. “I don’t even know what he wants to do during the fight; same as him, he doesn’t know what I’m going to do, wrestle him or strike him. If he’s going to miss punches, he’s going to wrestle. Me too, if I miss punches, I’m going to wrestle, so it’s going to be like a scramble fight. We are both complete MMA fighters. But my prediction is a finish in the first round, TKO.”

The 5-foot-7 Tsarukyan has a reach of 72 inches and his bouts average 12:22. He lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 1.91 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 3.40 per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 75 per cent.

Tsarukyan has nine wins by KO/TKO, seven by decision and five by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO at +125, followed by decision at +300 and submission at +700. That he wins in Round 1 is +200. That the bout ends via KO/TKO/DQ by either fighter is -110, with submission at +250 and decision at +300. Will it go the full three rounds? Yes is +200 with no at -300.