UFC 299 Odds, Prediction: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Saint-Denis is a -225 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Poirier a +180 underdog.
Dustin Poirier UFC 299 Odds
Islam Makhachev is the current UFC lightweight champion (and pound-for-pound king) with the 35-year-old Poirier, from Louisiana, ranked No. 3 in the division with a professional MMA record of 29-8 with one no-contest.
“The Diamond” has fought for the lightweight belt a few times. He won the interim belt at UFC 236 in April 2019 by taking out Max Holloway via unanimous decision but then lost the title in September that year in a third-round submission loss (rear-naked choke) to the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier, who does have two career wins over Conor McGregor (non-title fights), got another title shot at UFC 269 in December 2011 and lost to Charles Oliveira by third-round submission (rear-naked choke).
Poirier is 1-1 since, beating Michael Chandler via third-round submission (rear-naked choke; seems to be a popular finish in his bouts) and then losing to Justin Gaethje last July by second-round KO (head kick). Some believe that Poirier might retire if he loses again Saturday.
“I’ve been seeing people say that a lot,” Poirier said recently. “I think that’s because like a week ago I did an interview and somebody asked me, ‘Is this your last fight if it doesn’t go your way?’ I said, ‘Well, any fight could be my last one, win or lose.’”
This fight almost didn’t happen as on Feb. 1 Poirier tweeted, “My fights off.” He reportedly told one journalist that no contract was signed at the time the fight was announced and the sides couldn’t reach an agreement, but then only a few hours later announced the fight was on. Poirier claimed it was miscommunication between him and his management.
The 5-foot-9 Poirier, a southpaw, has a reach of 72 inches and his fights average 9:58. He lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.30 with 53 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.36 per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 63 per cent.
Poirier is one of 10 fighters in UFC history to earn 21 or more victories and is 13-4 with one no contest since he moved up to the lightweight division in April 2015. His eight knockout victories in UFC lightweight competition are second-most in divisional history behind Drew Dober (nine). Poirier is the only lightweight ever to land 150 or more significant strikes in three separate fights.
He has three losses by KO/TKO, three by submission and two by decision, with 14 wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and seven by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is KO/TKO/DQ at +275, followed by decision at +700 and submission at +800. A draw is +5000.
Benoit Saint-Denis UFC 299 Odds
The 28-year-old Saint-Denis, from France, is 13-1 in his pro career and ranked No. 12 in the division perhaps with a bullet. Prior to starting his MMA career, he was a marine in the French Army Special Forces but left the army after five years in 2017. The southpaw combines kickboxing, judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
“God of War” fought in a few organizations early in his career and lost his UFC debut in October 2021 to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos but has won five in a row since. Saint-Denis was last in the Octagon in November 2023 and easily handled Matt Frevola by first-round KO (head kick).
“He’s a tough guy, a lot of tough guys in this division, in the top five,” Saint-Denis said of facing Poirier. It is surprising to a lot of people that I’m facing him, but I think it’s one of the only weight classes where it’s surprising to face a top five opponent after five finishes in a row. I’m really happy. He has a lot of experience. He’s a former interim champion, of course, so it’s really going to be a test match for me. It’s a big test to see if I’m ready for whatever is next behind Poirier.”
The 5-foot-11 Saint-Denis, also a southpaw, has a reach of 73 inches and his fights average 7:09. He lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.20 with 44 per cent defence. His takedown average is 4.55 per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 66 per cent.
Saint-Denis is considered a fearless fighter who moves forward aggressively with his kickboxing but is a dangerous grappler as well. His five-fight UFC winning streak at lightweight is tied with Paddy Pimblett for the second-longest active streak in the division behind Islam Makhachev (12). Saint-Denis has earned all 13 of his victories by stoppage and his five-fight UFC stoppage steak is the second-longest among active fighters behind Shavkat Rakhmonov (six).
Overall, Saint-Denis has nine wins by submission and four by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +165, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +335 and decision at +700. That the fight goes the full five rounds is +375 with no at -550. That Saint-Denis wins inside distance is -145 and Poirier +210.
