UFC 298 Odds, Prediction: Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry

Payton Matthews
February 14, 2024

Garry is a -250 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Neal is a +190 underdog.

Geoff Neal UFC 298 Odds

Leon Edwards is the current UFC welterweight champion, while 33-year-old Neal, who fights out of the Dallas area, is ranked eighth in the division with a professional record of 15-5 dating to 2012. He fought for the middleweight belt once in the XKO organization but lost by third-round TKO (punches) to Kevin Holland.

“Handz of Steel” started that pro career at 7-2 before getting his big break, which was a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2017 when Neal beat Chase Waldon by first-round TKO (punches) to earn a full-time spot on the UFC roster. Neal then won his next five bouts as well but is 2-3 since and comes off a third-round submission loss (rear-naked choke) to Shavkat Rakhmonov in March. Neal missed weight for the first time in his career and admitted he might have taken Rakhmonov lightly.

“Just learned not to take anybody lightly anymore,” Neal said. “He was way better than I thought he was gonna be. … Just lack of preparation, and I had injuries that were before the fight. Some medical issues popped up, too. I don’t want to get into detail, but I’ll just attribute it to lack of preparation.”

The 5-foot-11 Neal, a southpaw, has a reach of 75 inches and his bouts average 10:36. He lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.60 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.67 per 15 minutes with 75 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 89.7 per cent in UFC welterweight competition, the third-best rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Kamaru Usman (97.3) and Belal Muhammad (93.3), who lost to Neal in 2019.

Neal has two losses by decision, two by submission and one by KO/TKO with nine wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and two by submission. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +250, followed by decision at +575 and submission at +2200. A draw is +5000.

Ian Machado Garry UFC 298 Odds

The 26-year-old Garry, from Dublin, Ireland, is 13-0 in a pro career dating to only 2019 and is ranked No. 10 in the welterweight division with a bullet. Yes, Conor McGregor had a big impact on his career choice. Prior to signing with the UFC, Garry was a Cage Warriors welterweight champion.

“The Future” debuted in the UFC in November 2021 and beat Jordan Williams by first-round KO (punches). Garry is 6-0 in the UFC and comes off a unanimous decision win over Neil Magny in August 2023 – Geoff Neal was supposed to be the opponent there but Neal withdrew.

In the build up to the Magny fight, Garry wore a T-shirt with the mugshot of Neal, which caused a stir on social media. Garry was then supposed to fight Vicente Luque at UFC 296 last November, but a bout of pneumonia forced him out of that contest

Garry is very aware that the key for opponents to beat him is to get Garry to the ground and keep him there.

“I’ve always said it but the biggest thing I can learn and takeaway right now is having elite level jiu-jitsu to counter what everyone else is going to try to do to me,” Garry said. “They’re going to try to suffocate me, smother me, put me on my back. I’d do that to me if I was fighting me.”

His six-fight UFC winning streak at welterweight is tied with Shavkat Rakhmonov and Jack Della Maddalena for the longest active streak in the division.

The 6-foot-3 Garry (tall for the division) has a reach of 74 inches and his bouts average 11:13. He lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute with 56.7 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.58 with 53 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.67 per 15 minutes with 75 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent. That significant strike percentage is the second-highest rate in divisional history behind Gunnar Nelson (60.5 per cent). Garry’s 6.67 significant strikes per minute is the fourth-highest rate in divisional history.

He has seven wins by KO/TKO, five by decision and one by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +315 and submission at +700. The over-under is 2.5 rounds and that the fight goes the distance is -110 with no at -120.