UFC 298 Odds, Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

Alexander Volkaovski is ranked No. 3 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings as he prepares to defend his featherweight belt for the sixth time. Volkanovski will have his hands full on Saturday when he faces Ilia Topuria, who has a perfect record in his career and is coming off three straight Performance of the Night or Fight of the Night bonuses.

Volkanovski is a -140 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Topuria is a +115 underdog.

Alexander Volkanovski UFC 298 Odds

The 35-year-old Volkanovski is 26-3 since his professional MMA debut in 2012. He is the current UFC featherweight champion and he is a former Australian Fighting Championship featherweight champion. Volkanovski has ruled the featherweight division since winning the belt in 2019, successfully defending the title five times. He came up just short of becoming a double champion last February when he lost a lightweight title fight against Islam Makhachev by unanimous decision. The bout earned Fight of the Year honours and led to a rematch in October. Volkanovski took that fight as a short-notice injury replacement and lost by first-round knockout.

“The Great” is as well-rounded a fighter as it gets in the UFC. He’s quick on his feet and he’s very tactical with a smart, efficient fight strategy. On the ground, Volkanovski is solid offensively and defensively, and he usually drives the action while cleanly mixing his skills. Standing up, he tends to fight from the outside as he relies on a long jab and low kicks to maintain distance. He has a high fight IQ and he’s able to adjust on the fly to quickly string together devastating combos.

Volkanovski’s biggest advantage in this fight is Topuria’s lack of experience in a five-round fight. His strategy will likely involve pushing the pace from the start to pressure Topuria relentlessly. Volkanovski has won all four of his UFC featherweight fights that have gone five rounds and his 17:40 average fight time is the longest all-time in the featherweight division. The longer this fight goes, the more it tips in Volkanovski’s favour.

Ilia Topuria UFC 298 Odds

The 27-year-old Topuria is a perfect 14-0 in a pro MMA career that dates to 2015. His first five-round fight ended in a unanimous decision win over Josh Emmett last June, bringing his record in the Octagon to 6-0 since his UFC debut in 2020. Ranked No. 3 in the featherweight division, Topuria has quickly climbed the ladder with finishes in four of his six UFC victories. In his last thee fights, he earned Performance of the Night in his lightweight debut against Jai Herbert, a second Performance of the Night in his return to featherweight against Bryce Mitchell and Fight of the Night against Emmett.

“El Matador” has all the tools to be a powerhouse fighter. His superior physical strength has helped him become a lethal grappler and his 67.4 per cent significant strike defence is third all-time among UFC featherweights. In standup fights, Topuria has a high guard with a boxing base. He tends to throw tight, quick hooks and he holds enough power in both hands to punish opponents multiple ways. Topuria is also a patient grappler who is adept at maintaining control and he has a great sense of when to go for a submission.

Topuria has a tough decision to make in this fight because Volkanovski is skilled both standing up and on the ground. The champ probably holds a slight edge standing up, so Topuria should move things to the ground where he can push for a submission. Topuria isn’t going to want to drag this fight to the later rounds, so his best strategy is likely a ground-and-pound attack that opens up the possibility for a submission.

UFC 298 Prediction: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

This fight comes down to whether you think it will be a passing of the torch, or if you think Topuria is due to face the first setback of his career. It’s a tough call, but I’m willing to give Volkanovski a pass for his quick loss against Makhachev because he was fighting in a higher weight class on just 10 days notice. Volkanovski is coming into this title defence much more prepared with a full training camp under his belt and Topuria has never faced an opponent as skilled and well-rounded as the champ. Volkanovski wins by unanimous decision.