UFC 296 Odds, Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

This is an intriguing fight on Saturday’s card, insofar as it pits two fighters who have trained in vastly different styles. Stephen Thompson has practiced everything from American kickboxing to Tetsushin-ryu, making him a combatant who can handle his business in a great variety of ways. Shavkat Rakhmonov has, among other things, earned his spurs in combat sambo, which is a version of wrestling that originated in the former Soviet Union.

Rakhmonov is considered a heavy favourite on the MMA odds, priced at -625 to Thompson’s +434.

Shakvat Rakhmonov UFC 296

The 29-year-old Rakhmonov, who still fights out of Kazakhstan, enters the octagon with a resplendent 17-0-0 record. That’s right, the one they call “Nomad” has never lost a fight. Clearly, his title of Master of Sport from Russia has served him well.

2023 has been a light year for Rakhmonov. He only partook in one fight in March at UFC 285 against Neil Magny, which itself was a rescheduling of a bout that was supposed to happen in January. The Kazakh won via ear-naked choke submission in the third round, which awarded the tilt the Fight of the Night honour. Speaking of fights that never happened, Rakhmonov was supposed to go toe-to-toe against Kelvin Gastelum in September at UFC Fight Night 227, but the latter had to pull out due to a nasty face injury.

Physically, both he and his opponent are very similar. The lone discernable advantage in this instance is a two-inch arm reach that extends beyond Thompson’s (77 to 75). As for how he comes by his victories, he has never relied on the judges, not one time. A whopping 47 per cent of his wins come via KO and TKO, with the remaining 53 courtesy of submissions. He also vanquishes his foes much quicker, averaging 8:03 per fight. Arguably one of the more impressive features he brings to the octagon is his ability to deliver 4.45 significant strikes per 60 seconds while only taking 2.61. He averages 1.49 takedowns in a 15-minute bout.

Stephen Thompson UFC 296

Hailing from Simpsonville, South Carolina and nicknamed “Wonderboy”, Stephen Thompson enters this fight with a decent 17-6-1 record to his name. He is traditionally a kickboxer, but as alluded to already, he’s dabbled in all sorts of fighting art forms.

That said, amazingly this weekend’s event is going to be his first fight of 2023. The only other opportunity he had to flex his muscles throughout the calendar was in July at UFC 291 against Michel Pereira but the bout was cancelled when his opposite number came in overweight. Before were some fisticuffs against Kevin Holland last December at UFC on ESPN 42, a challenge he succeeded at when Holland’s team opted to stop the fight in the fourth round.

Incidentally, he attains wins through KO and TKO at the same frequency as Rakhmonov, 47 per cent. On the flip side, unlike the Kazakh, Thompson does depend on judges’ decisions a lot more, as 47 per cent of his wins come via that route. The remaining six per cent is with submissions. His fights have a longer average duration, lasting almost the full 15 minutes (14:51). He too delivers a good number of major blows per minute (4.2) and doesn’t too many either, albeit still a bit more than his opponent (3.04). He doesn’t grapple much compared to Rakhmonov (0.27 every 15 minutes to 1.49), but his defence against it is only 64 per cent.

UFC 296 Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Rakhmonov via TKO