UFC 296 Odds, Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
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Edgar Chaput
It’s time for UFC fans to open their presents. The 2023 calendar is ready to go out with a bang in the entertainment capital of the U.S. Vegas is the place, this Saturday is the day, and a Flyweight title bout as the co-main event is on the card. Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja and American Brandon Royval renew hostilities, only this time a championship is on the line.
The MMA odds have Royval priced at +154 and Pantoja at -188, making the latter the favourite, but not a heavy one. A light one. Rim shot.
Alexandre Pantoja UFC 296
The 33-year-old who goes by the nickname “The Cannibal”, arrives in Vegas as the Flyweight title holder. What’s more, this isn’t the first time that Pantoja and Royval meet in the octagon. They crossed paths in August 2021 at UFC on ESPN 29, a match won by the current champ via a rear-naked choke. The question is can he defeat the same foe twice, this time with so much more at stake?
The belt itself was earned not long ago. The momentous occasion was UFC 290 this past July when Pantoja downed Brandon Moreno thanks to a split decision. The bout itself earned the Fight of the Night honour. A year before that was a tilt versus Alex Perez at UFC 277, which the Brazilian won via a neck crank submission, which sounds about as painful as it looks.
As far as size goes, Pantoja has no discernable advantages. He’s shorter than Royval (five feet five to five feet nine) and has slightly shorter arm and leg reaches. That didn’t stop him the first time though. His winning ways are varied and balanced, with 31 per cent coming via KO and TKO, 38 courtesy of submissions, with the remaining 31 per cent by impressing the judges. His stamina is solid, as he averages 11:11 per fight. His significant strikes per minute average is a strong 4.41, although he takes 3.81 licks every 60 seconds too. He’s more of a grapplers than Royval, averaging 1.75 takedowns in a 15 minute fight, where the American only goes for 0.66, but with worse accuracy.
Brandon Royval UFC 296
A bit like his counterpart this Saturday, Brandon Royval has not been very active lately. His only moment in the ring in 202 was during the spring at UFC on ESPN 44. It was there that he faced Matheus Nicolau, whom he knocked out in the opening round.
There was a fight planned about a year ago against Amir Albazi for UFC Fight Night 216 but Royval had to cancel because of an injury. Furthermore, another tilt scheduled for October 2022 was also nixed, so “Raw Dawg” may be just that: a bit raw.
As we’ve established, the American has physical advantages over his Brazilian rival, such as a superior arm reach (68 inches to 67) and leg reach (38.5 inches to 36.5). His methods of victory are also diverse, but not as evenly split. The preferred tactic is the takedown, as 60 per cent of his successes come that way. Only 13 per cent relied on the judges, and 27 via KO and TKO. He’s much quicker to deal with his foes, however, averaging 6:28 a fight. As a submission artist, major hits are not as big a part of his game, as he lands 3.45 every minute whilst taking 2.63. Beware the 100 per cent takedown accuracy.