UFC 295 Predictions and Best Bets: Light heavyweight and interim heavyweight titles up for grabs

The UFC returns to New York City’s Madison Square Garden on Saturday night for a stacked UFC 295 event. Originally, Jon Jones was scheduled to defend his heavyweight title for the first time against former heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic, but Jones pulled out due to injury.

The main event will now feature former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka and former middleweight champion Alex Pereira fighting for the vacant light heavyweight belt.

Here’s your best bets for all the UFC 295 main card fights.

Make sure to check out our complete list of UFC and MMA betting odds.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

This should be a great fight between two former UFC champions. Both fighters are comfortable pacing the fight out and cautiously testing the waters before they really start to do damage, so don’t expect a quick finish. Only one of Pereira’s six career UFC fights has ended in the first round and Prochazka has never ended a fight in the first round since joining the UFC three years ago.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that this should be a very even fight. Prochazka and Pereira are both tough, dangerous fighters who hold real knockout power. Prochazka is athletic and explosive while his unpredictability has been an asset and a hinderance to him at times. Pereira has a dangerous left hook, but his leg kicks and striking accuracy are his biggest strengths.

This fight is tough to call in terms of winner or method of victory, so the safest option is to bet the rounds.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

The betting odds for Sergei Pavlovich versus Tom Aspinall show the fight as a near tossup. It’s tempting to take this fight to end in the first round, which is priced at -150, as Pavlovich’s last eight fights ended in the opening round as well as nine of Aspinall’s last 10. But, there’s better money on picking the outright winner and that’s the way we’re going.

For all of his quick finishes, Pavlovich is a calculated slugger who picks his shots wisely. He often relies on power over volume, waiting for his opponent to be hurt before swarming. Aspinall is light on his feet and he relies on movement and speed to overwhelm his opponents. His boxing is probably his strongest skillset, but he’s also comfortable on the ground.

Taking Aspinall to win in the first round at +175 is attractive, but Pavlovich is no pushover, so we’re going the safer route and backing Aspinall to win outright.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Tom Aspinall to win (-115)

Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern

Former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade has had a busy year as it will be her fifth fight in 2023 when she faces Mackenzie Dern on Saturday. Andrade is riding a three-fight losing streak, all by stoppage, while Dern has alternated victories across her last four fights and most recently won by unanimous decision in May.

Andrade is known as one of the hardest hitters in the strawweight division. She is incredibly strong and she brutalizes opponents by locking on a single leg and slamming them to the ground. Dern’s bread and butter comes from the ground and she is one of the most skilled grapplers in the division. If this fight ends up on the ground, Dern will have a sizeable advantage in skill and strategy.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern to win by submission (+125)

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Matt Frevola enters the weekend on a three-fight win streak, with his first-round knockout win in May earning him a Performance of the Night bonus. Benoit Saint-Denis has won his last four fights and he’s fresh off a second-round knockout win in September that earned Fight of the Night honours in Paris.

This will likely be a quick fight as Frevola’s last four bouts have ended in the first round and both fighters tend to look for quick finishes. We’re taking the favourite Saint-Denis to win this early. Frevola has been knocked out twice since entering the UFC, once in one minute flat and a second time in just seven seconds.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Benoit Saint Denis to win in first round (+150)

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini are both comfortable on the ground and they have each won by submission in over half of their victories. The interesting twist, however, is neither fighter has lost by submission. That makes this a little harder to predict as it seems just as likely this fight will go the distance as it is that this fight will end by submission.

Lopes is the more dangerous fighter standing up, while Sabatini is the stronger wrestler and should be able to maintain control on the ground. Lopes and Sabatini are both smart fighters, so this could essentially end up as a chess match. We see this fight turning into a three-round grind on the ground by two elite submission artists. Sabatini’s wrestling should be the difference.

UFC 295 Best Bet: Pat Sabatini to win (-120)