UFC 270: Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds, Prediction

The trilogy comes to an end Saturday night when UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno defends his belt for the first time against former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo in the co-main event of UFC 270 from Anaheim California.  These fighters fought to a majority draw late in 2020, before Moreno dethroned Figueiredo last June.

Moreno is a -170 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Figueiredo enters as a +130 underdog.

Brandon Moreno UFC 270 Odds

Moreno (19-5 MMA record) entered as the challenger in the first two fights, but he’ll be defending UFC gold when he walks into the Octagon on Saturday.  The first fight in this trilogy was an instant classic that ended in a majority draw and a no-brainer rematch.  The second fight was much more decisive, with Moreno winning by third-round submission.

“The Assassin Baby” is normally known as a submission artist.  However, he’s also developed his standup to elite status as well.  Moreno is a smooth, fluid striker.  He likes to throw shots in bunches when he’s attacking and also when he’s countering.  He’ll mix up shots to the body and head and he’s skilled at using his jab to disrupt opponents’ timing.

The ground is where Moreno really thrives.  His wiry frame helps him find leverage and he’s constantly looking for submission opportunities.  He likes to pressure forward and if he can draw an opponent into a dogfight, he almost always has the advantage.

As far as strategy, why change what worked so well before?  Moreno is tough, intense, and he knows how to beat Figueiredo.  Expect a similar fight plan as last time.  Moreno will likely try to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible to search for a mid-fight submission.

Deiveson Figueiredo UFC 270 Odds

Figueiredo (20-2 MMA record) would have won the first fight against Moreno if not for an illegal point deduction.  If Figueiredo actually won that fight, there would not have been an immediate rematch and the Brazilian would likely still hold the flyweight belt.  Instead, Figureiredo now sees himself as the challenger.  The question is, was it just an off-night for Figueiredo last June, or is there a more serious issue with his fight-game?

“Deus Da Guerra” is a precision fighter.  He holds incredible power and he is skilled at sniffing out submission and knockouts opportunities.  Standing up, Figueiredo is an efficient striker who carefully picks his shots.  He capitalizes on the slightest openings to land powerful blows that wear opponents down until a submission or knockout opportunity presents itself.

Figueiredo’s ground game is just as calculating and technically sound as his striking.  None of his movements are wasted and his physical strength makes his chokes vise-like.  He came out flat in the last fight after reportedly having a bad weight-cut, but don’t bank on that happening again.  There’s too much on the line for Figueiredo, so he’ll likely come out hard and come out fast.

UFC 270 Prediction: Moreno vs. Figueiredo

There’s two conflicting areas of thought for this fight.  The first, Moreno already knows how to beat Figueiredo, so he should be able to do it again.  The second, Figueiredo was considered the better overall fighter until the loss in July, so maybe it was a one-time misstep and he’ll bounce back with a statement win on Saturday.  I’m more inclined to believe Figueiredo’s skill and power haven’t disappeared because of one loss.  Figueiredo will win by second-round KO/TKO.