UFC 267: Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker Prediction
There’s not much rest for Dan Hooker as he’ll take on Islam Makhachev in a lightweight bout on the UFC 267 main card, just five weeks after his last fight. Hooker is a late replacement for the injured Rafael Dos Anjos, making the New Zealander a heavy underdog against the intimidating Makhachev.
Makhachev is a heavy -595 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Hooker coming in as a +400 underdog.
Islam Makhachev UFC 267 Odds
Makhachev (20-1 MMA record) was already a name to watch for in the lightweight ranks at the beginning of the year, but two dominating submission victories in 2021 have him at the forefront of the division. A friend and training partner of former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is viewed as an heir to the lightweight belt. He comes into Saturday riding an eight-fight win streak and is already 2-0 in 2021. Makhachev took out Drew Dober with an arm-triangle choke in March and followed that up by taking out Thiago Moises with a fourth-round rear-naked choke in July.
The 30-year-old Russian has a very similar wrestling and grappling style as his mentor, Nurmagomedov. The biggest difference between Makhachev and Nurmagomedov is Makhachev’s tendency to be rangier on his feet. Makhachev is still working on his striking abilty, but he’s a relentless fighter and he’s extremely dangerous when he gets on top of an opponent. His grappling is superior to Hooker as he averages 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes on 65 per cent accuracy compared to 0.91 takedowns on 36 per cent accuracy for Hooker.
Makhachev’s overall fighting ability is continuously improving, but he’ll still likely focus on takedowns against Hooker. He’ll need to be careful if Hooker gets loose on his feet as the New Zealander is known to throw well-timed knees. Makhachev should focus on getting this fight to the ground and looking for a submission.
Dan Hooker UFC 267 Odds
Hooker (21-10 MMA record) has wanted this fight for a long time and he proved that by stepping in for the injured Dos Anjos just days after his unanimous decision win over Nasrat Haqparast at the end of September. He’s been a fixture in the Top 10 for a few years now, but he hasn’t been able to string together any long win streaks. If Hooker wants a title shot, this is an absolute must-win fight.
“The Hangman” holds a 4.5-inch reach advantage which greatly benefits his striking focus. He averages 4.95 significant strikes per minute on 48 per cent accuracy compared to 2.24 strikes on 58 per cent accuracy for Makhachev. Hooker doesn’t mind a brawl, but he’s also a technically sharp kickboxer who prefers to carefully pick his shots. At range he’ll work leg kicks when opponents enter the pocket and he uses his knees to prevent other fighters from reaching for his legs.
Expect Hooker to keep this fight standing up. He has a massive reach advantage and is the better striker. His frame and technique helps him defensively against grappling. If Hooker can keep this fight standing up, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a well-timed knee end Makhachev’s night early.
UFC 267 Prediction: Makhachev vs. Hooker
Hooker is a veteran fighter who has been on the cusp of title contention in the lightweight division for a few years now. You can’t overlook him with his technical and powerful striking ability. But, it’s tough to overlook any fighter connected to Khabib Nurmagomedov. That connection, combined with the quick turnaround for Hooker will help Makhachev win this fight by submission.