UFC 263 Odds: Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz

Payton Matthews
June 10, 2021

Edwards is a -410 favourite on the MMA odds and Diaz +285.

Leon Edwards -375
Nate Diaz +260

Leon Edwards UFC 263 Odds

There is something very unusual about this fight: It’s scheduled for five rounds even though it’s a non-title/non-main event fight. That’s a first in the UFC. Edwards and Diaz were supposed to be the co-main event of UFC 262, but Diaz had a minor injury so the bout was pushed back.

When asked why this allowance, UFC president Dana White said simply: “They wanted to fight five rounds. It was easy. That’s what they were scheduled for in the fight before (at UFC 262), too.”

Edwards (18-3), a Jamaican-born Englishman, is ranked No. 3 in the welterweight division behind champion Kamaru Usman, No. 1 Colby Covington and No. 2 Gilbert Burns, and a win here certainly would help get Edwards closer to a title shot. The 29-year-old did fight Usman way back in 2015 and lost via unanimous decision.

“Rocky” hasn’t lost in nine bouts since, including wins over former UFC champions Donald Cerrone and Rafael dos Anjos. Edwards comes off a no-contest in March against Belal Muhammad (fighting Demian Maia immediately before this bout Saturday) as Edwards accidentally poked Muhammad in the eye and Muhammad couldn’t continue.

Edwards wins the majority of his fights (50 per cent) by decision and two of his three losses are via the judges. The southpaw lands an average of 2.56 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.03. His takedown average is 1.35 per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 70 per cent.

Nate Diaz UFC 263 Odds

Diaz (20-12), a 36-year-old American, isn’t ranked in the welterweight division but he doesn’t always fight in that weight class and in fact has been in the Octagon just twice since 2016.

No question that Diaz became best known for his back-to-back wars in 2016 with superstar Conor McGregor. Diaz pulled off the big upset in the first meeting via submission and then lost a controversial majority decision in the rematch. Neither was a title fight, but they drew huge pay-per-view numbers. Diaz’s fighting style is also appealing to fans because he’s very aggressive.

As popular as Diaz is, his only title fight came in December 2012 when he lost in a lightweight bout against Benson Henderson. Following that second McGregor bout, Diaz didn’t fight again until August 2018 when he beat Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision. He fought again vs. Jorge Masvidal in November 2019 for the “BMF” title (Google it) and lost via third-round TKO.

There is speculation Diaz could get a shot at Usman with an upset here simply because of his popularity. Diaz wins the majority of the time (55 per cent) by submission and nine of his 12 losses are by decision. He lands 4.62 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.78. Diaz’s takedown average is 1.19 per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 42 per cent.