UFC 257 Odds: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas Prediction

Saturday’s main card of UFC 257 from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi features a battle between two Top 10 contenders in an already crowded strawweight division.  With only one career loss each, both of these fighters are potentially a win or two away from a title shot, making Saturday night the biggest fight of their careers.

Although she only has two years of UFC experience under her belt, Ribas is an overwhelming -350 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Rodriguez coming in at +250.

Marina Rodriguez UFC 257 Odds

It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez (12-1-2) bounces back from the first loss of her career. Rodriguez solidly positioned herself in the Top 10 of the strawweight division after picking up two wins and two draws in her first four UFC fights, including a win over Tecia Torres and a draw with Cynthia Calvillo. The Calvillo draw earned Rodriguez at a shot at former strawweight champion Carla Esparaza, last July, which ended in a split decision loss for Rodriguez. The strawweight division is crowded and there are multiple fighters who are a win or two away from getting into title contention, so this is a must-win for Rodriguez. A win sets her up nicely, while a loss could be devastating.

Rodriguez is definitely the better striker in this fight. Her striking is strong technically, and her footwork allows her to quickly move out of danger. Rodriguez averages more significant strikes landed per minute (5.82 for Rodriguez, 4.84 for Ribas) and has better significant strike accuracy (51 per cent for Rodriguez, 44 per cent for Ribas). She is a smart fighter, who is able to use her strength in the most beneficial way possible, while conserving as much energy as possible. While grappling is not her strength, she has a high takedown defence of 84 per cent to help her avoid the mat and keep it a standup fight, which plays to her strengths.

Amanda Ribas UFC 257 Odds

Ribas (10-1) is undefeated since joining the UFC in 2019. She’s a rising star in the strawweight division and picked up a unanimous decision win over Randa Markos in March 2020, before moving to flyweight and submitting Paige VanZant in the first round with an armbar at UFC 251, last July. Ribas have never faced an opponent of Rodriguez’s caliber, so this is a big fight for her. Each win she picks up, moves her to a bigger fight and could eventually lead to a title shot.

With black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo, Ribas is a dangerous grappler, who can submit you in any position. She averages more takedowns per 15 minutes (2.02 for Ribas, 0.33 for Rodriguez), is more accurate with her takedowns (50 per cent for Ribas, 20 per cent for Rodriguez) and also averages more submissions per 15 minutes (1.61 for Ribas, 0.33 for Rodriguez). Opponents are wary of Ribas’ ground game, so she is often able to pressure forward without fear of takedowns. If this fight goes to the mat, Ribas will have a distinct advantage.

Rodriguez vs. Ribas UFC 257 Prediction

With only one career loss each, neither of these fighters is used to losing. They’re both fighting in a crowded strawweight division that is wide open and full of opportunity to move up the rankings. Rodriguez is the more experienced fighter, but Ribas is the more skilled fighter. Rodriguez’s strike-heavy style will leave her exposed for takedown opportunities and when she’s on the mat, Ribas will make quick work of her. Look for a first or second round submission win for Ribas.