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Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura: UFC Fight Night 224 Odds, Prediction

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This is a big opportunity for both fighters as No. 5 ranked heavyweight Tom Aspinall and No. 10 Marcin Tybura each look to cement their status as contenders.

Aspinall opened as a heavy -500 hometown favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Tybura is a +335 underdog.

UFC - Marcin Tybura v Tom Aspinall

  • Tom Aspinall -595
  • Marcin Tybura +390

Tom Aspinall UFC London Odds

Aspinall is 12-3 in his professional MMA career since 2014, including 5-1 over the last three years in the UFC. Thanks to a high-risk, high-reward fighting style, Aspinall has never fought past the second round, with 12 of his 15 career fights ending in round one. He has nine wins by knockout and three by submission.

Aspinall’s first five UFC fights went about as perfect as he could hope for. He dominated all five fights, earning four first-round stoppage victories, one second-round victory and four Performance of the Night bonuses. That run of good luck ended when he faced Curtis Blaydes last July. Aspinall’s night ended just 15 seconds into the fight after he suffered a knee injury, which resulted in his first UFC loss.

The 30-year-old Manchester native has defeated notable opponents such as Alexander Volkov, Sergey Spivak and Andrei Arlovski.

Aspinall is a high-volume strikers, averaging 7.41 significant strikes landed per minute with 65 per cent accuracy. He’s also a lethal grappler, averaging 4.0 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 100 per cent accuracy and 100 per cent defence.

The UFC did Aspinall a favour with this matchup. He’s drawing a legitimate opponent, but not a true contender. It’s a fight that adds a solid test for Aspinall without overwhelming him in his return from last year’s knee injury. A dominant victory on Saturday will put Aspinall very close to a title shot.

Marcin Tybura UFC London Odds

Tybura is an experienced fighter with a 24-7 professional MMA record dating back to 2011. He’s a former M-1 Global heavyweight champion and M-1 Grand Prix 2013 heavyweight champion. The 37-year-old from Poland debuted in the UFC in 2016, compiling an 11-6 record in the Octagon with three career Performance of the Night bonuses.

Tybura has proven to be a well-rounded fighter, capable of winning in a multitude of ways. Overall in his career, he has won nine times by knockout, nine by decision and six by submission. It’s worth noting, however, his six submission victories all came before his UFC debut.

“Tybur” had a five-fight win streak snapped in a unanimous decision loss against Volkov at UFC 267 in October 2021. He followed that setback with a majority decision victory against Alexander Romanov last August and a unanimous decision win against Blagoy Ivanov in February.

Tybura is more of a power striker. He averages 3.55 significant strikes landed per minute with 48 per cent accuracy. He also averages 1.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy and 79 per cent defence.

This fight could signal a crossroads for Tybura’s career. He has eight wins in his last nine fights, but he’s never really been able to establish himself as a legit contender. A win likely bumps him into the top-five of the division, while a loss could drop him out of the rankings altogether.

UFC Fight Night London: Aspinall vs. Tybura Prediction

Barring another freak injury, Aspinall will dominate this fight and it likely won’t be close. Go with Aspinall to win in Round 1 (-150).