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Edgar Chaput
Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira: UFC 291 Odds, Prediction
It’s youth versus experience when Stephen Thompson and Michel Pereira square off in the octagon in Utah. The American Thompson is a seasoned 40 years old, whereas his opposite number, Brazilian Michel Pereira, is only 29.
The MMA odds look upon the experienced Thompson more favourably, pricing him at -175. It’s a slight advantage compared to Pereira’s +135.
Stephen Thompson UFC 291
Hailing from Simpsonville, South Carolina, the one they call “Wonderboy” has not partaken in as many UFC fights as this weekend’s rival. His 17-6-1 record is to be respected, although one wonders if the times are slowly catching up with the American, at least judging by recent results.
He has only vanquished one of the three most recent opponents. Victory was achieved at UFC on ESPN last December when he earned a TKO over Kevin Holland. The effort merited Fight of the Night. That result halted a losing streak that saw Thompson fall to Gilbert Burns via unanimous decision at UFC 264 and then Belal Muhammad at UFC Fight Night in December 2021, with another unanimous decision going against him.
The jujutsu black belt holder has a significant weight advantage over Pereira, as he comes in at 184 pounds to the Brazilian’s comparatively svelte 170 pounds. Thompson’s reach is ever so slightly better at 75 inches to 73. Submissions are rarely part of the game plan with him, as only 6 per cent of his wins come that way. KO-TKO and decisions both represent 47 per cent of his victories. A critical area in which Thompson is at a disadvantage is major hits per minute. He lands a 4.2, but Pereira can deliver an impressive 5.09. The American also doesn’t grapple nearly as much as the Brazilian and is less effective in defending takedowns (64 per cent to 94 per cent).
Michel Pereira UFC 291
“Demolidor” is climbing up the ranks in UFC, sporting a 28-11 record. The Maraba, Brazil native has achieved black belts in both karate and Brazilian Jiu-jitsu.
An intriguing question mark surrounding Pereira entering this event is whether or not he has worked off the rust. He hasn’t engaged in a UFC in over a year. There was a bout planned with Sean Brady this past March at UFC on ESPN 43, but a groin injury forced his opponent to pull out and the fight was scrapped entirely. Prior to that came wins over André Fialho in January 2022 at UFC 270 via a unanimous decision and a split decision that went Pereira’s way in May 2022 at UFC Fight Night 206 against Santiago Ponzinibbio.
The Brazilian’s method of victory is more evenly distributed than his counterpart. Judges’ decisions as well as KO-TKO each take care of 37 per cent of his successes whereas submissions pave the way to wins the remaining 26 per cent of the time. He is a little bit more expedient in the ring than Thompson, averaging 13:04 minutes per bout to 14:51. As previously alluded to, Pereira hits a lot more every 60 seconds, but where things get interesting is that he doesn’t take that many more licks (3.78 to 3.04). His defence against critical hits is also superior, averaging 54 per cent to Thompson’s 45 per cent.
