Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho Prediction: UFC 264 Odds

Sean O’Malley is looking to build on his strong resume as he takes on UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho in a bantamweight fight on Saturday’s UFC 264 main card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.  O’Malley was originally scheduled to fight Louis Smolka, who had to pull out of the fight in late June with an injury, leaving the door open for Moutinho to make his UFC debut on short notice.

O’Malley is a heavy -885 favourite to win on the MMA odds.  Moutinho is a +545 dog.

Sean O’Malley UFC 264 Odds

O’Malley (13-1 MMA record) looks like he’s on the verge of stardom.  The 26-year-old American is 4-1 since his UFC debut in 2018 and all four of his wins have earned him bonuses.  He began his UFC career with a three-fight win streak, taking down Andre Soukhamthath by decision and earning first-round knockouts over Jose Alberto Quinonez and Eddie Wineland.  O’Malley’s only career loss came last August against Marlon Vera.  An early kick to his leg eventually forced O’Malley out of the fight via technical knockout.  He rebounded with a dominating performance and knockout win against Thomas Almeida in March and looks poised to make a big run through the bantamweight division.

“Sugar” is an absolutely lethal striker who has won nine fights via KO/TKO.  His striking is so dangerous because he patiently picks his moments and will feint to setup power strikes.  O’Malley constantly keeps opponents guessing because of his ability to accurately and powerfully strike from either side.  He’ll switch his stance mid-fight and his spinning kicks are always a threat.  He lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute on 57 per cent accuracy and he only absorbs 3.76.  With a two-inch reach advantage and four-inch height advantage, O’Malley is the stronger, better skilled and more comfortable fighter.

Kris Moutinho UFC 264 Odds

Moutinho (9-4 MMA record) saw his chance at the UFC and grabbed it.  He’s made his reputation through the East Coast regional circuit and is coming off two wins.  It took Moutinho just over a round to knockout Ashiek Ajim last October and he won with an arm triangle choke in the third-round against Andrew Salas in May.  Most of his fights have come in the Classic Entertainment & Sports organization, but his last fight and most impressive win was at Cage Fury Fighting Championship 96.

Like his opponent, Moutinho prefers a standing fight and is more of a “finish or be finished” fighter.  Moutinho’s conditioning is his strongest attribute.  He won’t slow the pace of the fight and although he doesn’t explode on opponents, he consistently lands a high volume of shots.  Moutinho is a slick kickboxer who punishes stationary opponents as they tire.  His biggest problem in this fight will be getting around his reach disadvantage.  If Moutinho can close the gap without exposing himself, he may have a shot.

UFC 264 Prediction: O’Malley vs. Moutinho

Moutinho deserves a lot of credit for taking this fight on short notice.  It’s the biggest fight of his life and without a full training camp he’s taking on an established fighter.  That confidence and determination says a lot, but it just won’t be enough.  Both fighters share a very similar style, but O’Malley is essentially a better version of Moutinho.  O’Malley earns a first-round knockout.