Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono: UFC 282 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
December 8, 2022

There is one fight on the UFC 282 card from Las Vegas on Saturday night that isn’t part of any weight class as Santiago Ponzinibbio faces Alex Morono at a catchweight. Ponzinibbio is a -185 favourite on the MMA odds with Morono at +145.

Santiago Ponzinibbio -180
Alex Morono +135

Santiago Ponzinibbio UFC 282 Odds

Ponzinibbio was supposed to face former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler at that weight on this card – they also were supposed to meet at UFC 245 in 2019 until Ponzinibbio withdrew due to a staph infection – but a few days ago, Lawler was forced to withdraw due to an undisclosed injury. Morono stepped in but because at such notice, this will be contested at a catchweight of 180 pounds.

The 36-year-old Ponzinibbio, from Argentina, is 28-6 in his professional career but has lost three of his past four – the past two by split decision against Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal. The 6-foot Ponzinibbio has a reach of 73 inches and his fights average 10:46. “The Argentine Dagger” lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute with 41 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.77 with 60 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.56 per 15 minutes with 31 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 60 per cent.

Ponzinibbio has earned 21 of his 28 career victories by stoppage – 15 by KO/TKO and six by submission. He has finished 16 of those wins in Round 1. Ponzinibbio’s four first-round knockout victories in UFC welterweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Anthony Johnson (five) and Vicente Luque (five).

Ponzinibbio said Morono is a great opponent because he’s 8-2 in his past 10 octagon appearances and enters the cage on a four-fight winning streak.

“I think that a win over Morono will be more important [than beating Lawler],” Ponzinibbio said. “Maybe not name-wise, but for this moment. Lawler wasn’t on a good moment. Former champion, but he lost his last fight. Morono will mean more for the rankings than Lawler because he won his last four and is very competitive. A good win over him will prove I’m ready to fight the best.”

Alex Morono UFC 282 Odds

The 32-year-old Morono, from Texas, is 22-7 in a career dating to 2010. He has cited the movie “The Matrix” for getting into MMA and is a former Legacy Fighting Championship welterweight champ.

Morono might be perfectly suited to face Ponzinibbio after helping Geoff Neal prepare for the Argentinian fighter (Neal beat Ponzinibbio last December). He likes the fight for more than just that reason: “I get a striker who comes forward, on pay-per-view. Man, I can’t ask for a better fight.”

“The Great White” enters on a four-fight winning streak, last in the Octagon on July 30 where he won a unanimous decision over Matthew Semelsberger on July 30 with two judges scoring it 29-28 and one 30-27. That improved Morono to 11-4 since joining the UFC with one no decision.

The 5-foot-11 Morono has a reach of 72 inches and his fights average 11:37. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.01 with 57 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.32 per 15 minutes with 20 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 51 per cent.

Morono has nine wins by decision, six by KO/TKO, six by submission and one by opponent DQ. Five of his seven losses are via the judges. No method of victory props as of this writing with the short-notice change.

The over-under for this bout is 2.5 rounds, with the over a -170 favourite.