Rodriguez vs. Ortega Prediction: UFC Fight Night Mexico City Odds

Payton Matthews
February 22, 2024

Rodriguez is a -150 favourite on the MMA odds with Ortega at +125.

Yair Rodriguez UFC Fight Night Odds

Ilia Topuria is the new featherweight champion and the 31-year-old Rodriguez, from Mexico, is ranked No. 3 in the division with a professional record of 19-4. He also had a no-contest against Jeremy Stephens in 2019 due to an accidental eye poke. Rodríguez has been with the UFC since 2014 after winning “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” featherweight tournament.

“El Pantera” faced Josh Emmett for the interim UFC featherweight title in February 2023 and won the belt with a second-round submission (triangle choke). It also earned Rodriguez the Performance of the Night award. He then fought Alexander Volkanovski in a title unification bout at UFC 290 last July and lost to one of the great featherweights in history by third-round TKO (punches). Volkanovski recently lost the belt in an upset against Topuria.

The 5-foot-11 Rodriguez, who hasn’t fought since, has a reach of 71 inches and his bouts average 13:16. He lands 4.63 significant strikes per minutes with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.07 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.73 per 15 minutes with 28 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 56 per cent.

Rodriguez’s knockout of Chan Sung Jung at the 4:59 mark of Round 5 at UFC Fight Night 139 is tied with Demetrious Johnson’s finish at UFC 186 for the latest ever stoppage in a UFC fight. Rodriguez’s nine fight-night bonuses for UFC featherweight bouts are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Max Holloway’s 10.

Overall, Rodriguez has eight wins by KO/TKO, six by decision and five by submission. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +175, followed by decision at +250 and submission at +1100. A draw is +5000. Rodriguez to win in 60 seconds or less is +2000. At any point in Round 1 is +550.

Brian Ortega UFC Fight Night Odds

The 33-year-old Ortega, a California native, is ranked fourth in the division with a record of 15-3, and he also has one no-contest: vs. Mike de la Torre in July 2014. Ortega is a former RFA featherweight champion.

“T-City” got his first UFC title shot against Max Holloway at UFC 231 in December 2018 and lost by fourth-round TKO (doctor stoppage). After a bounce-back win over the Korean Zombie in October 2020 (Ortega had a knee injury that was part of the reason for the delay in fighting), Ortega got another title shot against Alexander Volkanovski in September 2021 and lost by unanimous decision.

We haven’t seen Ortega in the Octagon since his lost to Yair Rodriguez by first-round TKO in July 2022. Ortega suffered a shoulder injury during a grappling exchange. Since then, Ortega said he has undergone multiple surgeries and a “rebirth process” to prepare himself for the next phase of his career.

“The rebirth is a nature process that the eagle goes through, and it’s something that felt very close to heart for me,” Ortega said during UFC Mexico City media day. “It’s some difficult changes that I had to make in my life, my personal life, to be able to really live the rest of my life the right way.”

The 5-foot-8 Ortega has a reach of 69 inches and his fights average 12:57. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 38 per cent accuracy and absorbs 6.66 with 49 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.95 per 15 minutes with 23 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 56 per cent.

Ortega has seven wins by submission, five by decision and three by KO/TKO. His six stoppage victories in UFC featherweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Holloway (10) and Ricardo Lamas (seven). Ortega is the only fighter in organization history to earn four consecutive third-round stoppage victories, and his three submission victories in UFC featherweight competition are tied for fifth-most in divisional history.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +300, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +500 and decision at +650. To win in 60 seconds or less is +2800. At any point in Round 1 is +650. That the fight goes the full five rounds is +150 with no at -210.