Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena Preview: UFC Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry
December 1, 2022

If you want to bet him to win, he’s at -510, which means a $510 wager would return $100. Is there any value with his opponent in this bout, Bryan Barberena? Or will dos Anjos win as expected?

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena

Date: Saturday, December 3^rd, 2022 – 9:00 PM ET

Location: Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Rafael dos Anjos -400
Bryan Barberena +280

Rafael dos Anjos

Rafael dos Anjos is now 38 years of age and while many thought that his best years were behind him, he’s still showing he has plenty of fight left. Dos Anjos, who is the former Lightweight Champion and Welterweight contender, had a rough spell from 2018 to 2020 where he had dropped four of five. However, he has since won two of his last three. One concern is that his latest loss was by knockout, this time at the hands of Rafael Fiziev. Dos Anjos has 14 losses during his successful MMA career but that was just the third time he’s been knocked out and the first time since 2016.

In fairness, the bout with Fiziev was an all-out war. The knockout came in the fifth round when both fighters were worn down. This should be – emphasis on should – where dos Anjos bounces back but his opponent sees this fight quite differently. For him, it’s an opportunity to springboard into the rankings.

The key to a dos Anjos win here is going to be getting this to the ground. If he can pull that off, he’s going to be on the right path. If he decides to stand and bang with Barberena, the fight becomes much more of a toss-up.

Bryan Barberena

Barberena is being viewed as a good rebound opportunity for dos Anjos but he’s no stepping stone – regardless of what the odds suggest. He’s won four of his last five fights and he’s an entertaining athlete. His fights have resulted in Fight of the Night honors in three of the last four times he’s stepped in the Octagon.

Barberena will have some notable advantages here – including size, youth, reach. He’s got power in his hands and after seeing dos Anjos go down to Fiziev, he’s going to see if he can work that chin a little more.

Of Barberena’s 18 wins, 11 have come via knockout, so that paints a pretty good picture of what we should expect here. It figures to be something like a Barberena knockout or a dos Anjos decision. The main question is can Barberena keep this standing.

It’s also worth noting that while Barberena is on a hot streak now, generally speaking, he hasn’t had prolonged success in his UFC career. He’s not a newbie as he’s been in the promotion since 2014 and he’s just 9-6. There’s a reason he’s unranked. Is it possible that he recently started to put things together? Yes. Is he on the best stretch of his career? Yes. At the same time, other than beating a 40-year-old Robbie Lawler, he has few wins against big-name fighters on his resume. That’s why he’s such a big dog here.