Jeremy Perry
March 9, 2023

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann: UFC Fight Night 221 Odds, Prediction

Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann were supposed to headline UFC Fight Night 220 just a few weeks ago but the bout had to be called off when Krylov got sick. He’s back to full strength and now we’re going to see the two square off on Saturday as part of UFC Fight Night 221.

Spann was once the Legacy Fighting Alliance light heavyweight champion and is now ranked No. 8 in the UFC light heavyweight division. Krylov is slightly higher at No. 6, which is part of the reason why he’s favoured to win on the MMA odds. Let’s take a closer look at this bout and see what the best bet is.

Nikita Krylov -170
Ryan Spann +130

Nikita Krylov

Nikita Krylov has had mixed success since returning to the UFC in 2019 but some are wondering if he’s finally found some solid footing. He was just 2-4 in his first six bouts with the promotion but enters Saturday on a two-fight winning streak and favoured to make it three in a row. At the time, Krylov’s slump didn’t look great and some wondered if the UFC would cut him. Looking back, three of his four losses were to Jan Blachowicz, Glover Teixeira, and Magomed Ankalaev – some top-level talent – so it doesn’t look so bad now.

There’s no question Krylov is a capable striker but he’s more someone who actually does more damage on the ground. He’ll mix in kicks while standing but it’s more to set up his takedowns than to create openings for a knockout. That has led to 12 of his 29 wins coming by knockout, while 15 are via submission. He has just one knockout win in the last five years, however.

The concern for Krylov is that his chin has had challenges at times and Spann is going to come at him early, although the longer this fight goes, the better for Krylov as Spann has question marks in terms of his cardio. That should be Krylov’s strategy: be careful early, pick up points and takedowns, and try to drag this out.

Ryan Spann

Spann tends to engage in entertaining bouts, so you probably won’t want to miss this fight – even if you’re not betting it. Two of his last four fights earned Performance of the Night honors and only one of his last eight bouts has gone to a decision. Spann tends to come out like he’s shot out of a cannon. That’s part of why each of his last five fights have ended in the first round. This bout is set for a full 25 minutes – if needed – so Spann better be careful not to go too hard, too early.

Spann is more than capable on the ground here, which is where Krylov might want to take this bout. Spann has won by submission twice as many times (12) than he has by knockout (six). It’s hard to see him submitting Krylov because he’s strong on the ground too but stranger things have happened.

The best bet for this fight might be to live bet it and watch how it unfolds. It’s likely either Spann and under, or Krylov and over. If you’re watching the fight and Spann hasn’t won by the end of the second round, it might be a good idea to bet Krylov at that point. Spann is likely to be aggressive early and fade late.