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Edgar Chaput
Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland: UFC 291 Odds, Prediction
It’s an all-American battle when Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland cross paths in Salt Lake City this Saturday at UFC 291. Both have excellent records and handle their opponents in very different ways, which should make for a captivating affair.
The MMA odds suggest a tough fight to call. Holland is perched as the favourite, but only at -155 to Chiesa’s +120.
Michael Chiesa UFC 291
The Aurora, Colorado native has amassed a considerable 18-6 win-loss record in his MMA career. “Maverick” is a Brazilian Jiu-jitsu brown belt wearer and trains out of Spokane Valley, Washington.
UFC 291 will be the first time in a while that Michael Chesia steps into the octagon. All three of his previous bouts were in 2021. In January of that year, he came face to face with Neil Magny at UFC on ESPN 20, a fight he won via unanimous decision. In August came a tussle with Vicente Luque at UFC 265. That didn’t go so well as Luque took the contest via submission. Lastly, at UFC Fight Night 198 in November came a date with Sean Brady, which he also lost as per the judges’ decision. UFC 291 is therefore a rebound opportunity for Chiesa.
Height and weight-wise both fighters are evenly matched, but Chiesa’s reach is much shorter than Holland’s at 75.5 inches to 81. Something we don’t see that often is the number zero. That’s the percentage of his victories achieved via KO or TKO. A whopping 61 per cent of them are thanks to submissions of opponents, with the balance of 39 per cent handed by the judges. Those KO-TKO numbers explain the low number of significant strikes per minute, just 1.88. On the flip side, he eats very little as well, only 1.67. Understandably, grappling is a huge part of Chiesa’s technique, as he goes for 3.39 takedowns every 15 minutes, whereas Holland only attempts 0.84.
Kevin Holland UFC 291
Any fighter would be proud of a 24-9 win-loss record, so who can blame Kevin Holland for being nicknamed “Big Mouth”? The 30-year-old from Riverside, California has studied both Kung Fu – a style not referenced often in MMA – and the trademark Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. He has a black belt in Kung Fu, for that matter.
Holland has been one of the most active fighters of the last couple of years. Not only has he already fought in 2023, but he engaged in no fewer than four tilts last year. Back in March 2022 was a battle against Alex Oliveira at UFC 272, which Holland took by TKO in the second round. After that was a match with Tim Means in June at UFC on ESPN 37. He won that as well thanks to a second-round submission. A circuitous bit of reshuffling resulted in Holland fighting Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 279, which he lost via submission. UFC on ESPN 42 saw him fight Stephen Tompson, a bout he also fell in via TKO. Lastly was his tilt with Santiago Ponzinobbio this past April at UFC 287. He took the match by KO.
Contrary to Chiesa, Kevin Holland loves to win by KO or TKO, as that happens 58 per cent of the time. Only 17 per cent of his successes are ordained by the judges, and 25 come via submission. He spends a bit more time in the octagon, averaging 11:18 per fight to his opponent’s 9:54. Unsurprisingly, Holland lands a lot more significant strikes every 60 seconds (4.12 to 1.88) and takes in more, but not at an alarming rate (2.98). His defence against them is a respectable 52 per cent. Although Chiesa is a good grappler, take note that Holland has a 50 per cent defence against that mode of attack.
