Edgar Chaput
March 16, 2023

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman: UFC 286 Odds, Prediction

All eyes will be on the 02 Arena on London’s Greenwhich peninsula this Saturday for this title-deciding battle. The Englishman Edwards (Jamaican-born) will benefit from home crowd support against his Nigerian adversary. This marks the third time the two will engage in fisticuffs. A rubber match, no less.

As per the UFC odds, it’s the challenger who benefits from the status as a favourite. Usman is pinned at -225.

Kamaru Usman -310
Leon Edwards +225

Leon Edwards UFC 286 odds

The 31-year-old Edwards earned his belt not all that long ago. It came at UFC 278 in August of last year. It was against this Saturday’s opponent in fact. To sweeten the victory, it was decided via a knockout in the fifth round, which awarded him with Performance of the Night honours. He probably preferred getting the belt.

Unfortunately, his recent history is spotty for all sorts of loopy reasons. The issues commenced with being removed from UFC ranking in October 2020 due to extended inactivity (425 days and counting). Then, in late 2020, a bout against Khamzat Chimaev could simply never get off the ground. COVID intervened, the participants suffered acute, lingering effects, and started losing too much weight, etc. After some rescheduling, the fight never happened. Chimaev was replaced by Belal Muhammad at UFC Fight Night 187 in March 2021 but Edwards accidentally poked him in the eye, thus the bout was declared a no contest. The Brit earned a unanimous victory at UFC 263 versus Nate Diaz.

Edwards arm reach is slightly below that of Usman (74 nches to 76), but holds a subtle edge in leg reach (43 inches to 41). Half of his victories come via the judges, with 15 per cent through submission, and 35 per cent by KO/TKO. He lands 2.59 significant hits per minute and only takes 2.28 thanks to 53 per cent defence efficiency. Given the low percentage of wins via submission, he doesn’t rely on takedowns much (1.39 per 15 minutes) but his defence is a solid 68 per cent.

Kamaru Usman UFC 286 odds

The Nigerian Nightmare gets an opportunity to win his welterweight belt back. The former wrestler and now Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt wearer had defended his title for three strong years, from 2019 to 2022.

Unfortunately, similarly to his rival Edwards, Usman’s recent trajectory has also had some ups and downs. He had to pull out of UFC 256 against Gilbert Burns due to lingering injuries. Nonetheless, their tilt was moved to UFC 258 in February 2021 where he won the match in the third round via TKO. Another title defence came at UFC 261 in April 2021 when he handled Jorge Masvidal by knocking him out in the sophomore round. His last win was at UFC 268 over Colby Covington.

He and Edwards have exactly the same weight (170.0 LB). Of note, Usman wins even fewer fights via submission, a negligible 5 per cent. 50 per cent come via decision – like Edwards – but 45 per cent are through a KO or TKO. Where things can get dangerous concerns significant strikes. The amount he takes per minute is comparable to Edwards (2.56 to his opponent’s 2.28) but dishes out a lot more: 4.55 to 2.59. He’s also more efficient at takedowns given his 3.01 every 15 minutes, bolstered by superior accuracy as well (48 per cent). What impresses most is the takedown defence: a phenomenal 97 per cent.