Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Prediction: UFC 296 Odds

Payton Matthews
December 13, 2023

Edwards is priced as a -160 favourite on the MMA odds with Covington at +130 for the scheduled five-rounder.

Leon Edwards UFC 296 Odds

The 32-year-old Edwards, from England, is the UFC welterweight champion with a career professional MMA mark of 21-3 and is ranked as the No. 4 pound-for-pound fighter in the organization behind lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, heavyweight champion Jon Jones and featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski. Edwards, who was actually born in Jamaica (only UFC champion in history born in that country), is also a former BAMMA welterweight champion. Edwards is one of two undisputed British titleholders in UFC history along with Michael Bisping.

“Rocky” hasn’t lost since 2015 to Kamara Usman, entering Saturday on a 12-fight unbeaten streak. He won the welterweight title with a fifth-round KO (head kick) of Usman in August 2022 and kept the belt via majority decision win over Usman in March. Edwards had a point deducted in the third round of that last bout due to grabbing the fence to prevent a takedown, but he was the most part the better fighter and defended 11 of Usman’s 15 takedown attempts. The only time in this 12-fight stretch that Edwards didn’t win was due to an accidental eye poke to Belal Muhammad, which ended their bout in a no-contest.

Edwards believes Covington’s long layoff from the Octagon (last in it March 2022) works in his favour: “Everyone talks about his cardio, but he’s not the same guy that beat Robbie Lawler. I’ve heard a lot about that guy, but that was four years ago. What about his skills? His skills are very limited. He’s very scrappy, but there are a lot of loopholes in his skills.”

The 6-foot-2 Edwards, a southpaw, has a reach of 74 inches and his bouts average 16:24. He lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.40 with 53 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.26 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent.

Edwards has 11 wins by decision, seven by KO/TKO and three by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by points at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +375 and by submission at +1400. A draw is +5000.

His 12-fight unbeaten streak at welterweight is the longest active streak in the division and the third-longest among active fighters in the company behind Jones (19) and Makhachev (13). Edwards’ eight-second knockout of Seth Baczynski at UFC Fight Night 64 is the third fastest in UFC welterweight history. Edwards has talked about moving to middleweight if he wins.

Colby Covington UFC 296 Odds

This might be the last title shot for the 35-year-old Covington, who is from Oregon – was a star wrestler at Oregon State and two-time Pac-10 champion. He’s 17-3 in a pro career dating to 2012 and ranked as the No. 3 welterweight behind Edwards, Kamaru Usman and Belal Muhammad.

“Chaos” did hold the welterweight title briefly as he beat Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision in June 2018 to claim the interim title. Covington was to battle champion Tyron Woodley in September that year to unify the title but couldn’t due to nasal surgery and was eventually stripped of the belt.

Covington got his shot to win it back in December 2019 but lost by third-round TKO (punches) to Usman. Then came a non-title bout and win over Woodley in September 2020 followed by another title loss to Usman by unanimous decision in November 2021. Covington hasn’t fought since beating Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision in March 2022.

Saturday’s fight reportedly will be attended by former US President Donald Trump, who is a known supporter of the outspoken Covington. Edwards was asked if he thinks the UFC wants his opponent to win: “Probably. I think Trump wants him to win. I don’t know. None of it matters, right? My whole career’s been the underdog going against the favourite.”

The 5-foot-11 Covington has a reach of 72 inches and his fights average 16:34. He lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute with 39 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.05 with 55 per cent defence. His takedown average is 4.05 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 72 per cent.

Covington has nine wins by decision and four each by KO/TKO and submission. Covington attempted 541 total strikes against Robbie Lawler at UFC on ESPN 5 in a win in August 2019, the second-most in a single UFC fight behind Max Holloway’s 746 attempts at UFC on ABC 1. Covington attempted 515 significant strikes in that bout, the single-fight UFC record. His 67 takedowns landed in welterweight competition are second-most in divisional history behind Canadian legend Georges St-Pierre (87).

For Saturday, Covington’s favoured method of victory is by points at +200, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +650 and submission at +1000. That the fight goes the distance is -190 with no at +155.