Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

It’s taken effort, but Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate are finally set to meet in the flyweight division as the opening main card fight for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night at UBS Arena on Long Island.  This is the third attempt to mach No. 3 contender Murphy against No. 10 Tate after two postponements, which clearly shows how important this fight is to the women’s flyweight division.

Tate is a -220 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Murphy is a +165 underdog.

Lauren Murphy Fight Night Odds

Murphy (15-5 MMA record) started her professional MMA career with eight straight wins, culminating in the Invicta FC bantamweight championship.  Her following UFC debut did not go so well as she lost her first two fights in the promotion.  The Alaskan native has found more success at flyweight, going 6-2 in the promotion.

“Lucky” rode a five-fight win streak to a championship opportunity against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 266 last September, losing by fourth-round TKO.  She is a brawler who has eight career victories by KO/TKO, six by decision and one by submission.  Highlights include a brutal third-round TKO win over Mara Romero Borella and split decision victories over Andrea Lee and Joanne Calderwood.

Murphy’s size is more in line with the 135-pound class, so she’s big compared to the average flyweight.  Her high-level conditioning allows her to take advantage of her size without sacrificing speed or stamina.  The 38-year-old averages 3.58 significant strikes landed per minute.  She prefers to fight up close while looking for body shots and takedown opportunities.

With Tate making the cut down to flyweight for the first time, Murphy’s best strategy is to pressure Tate from the start and wear out her gas tank.  The one concern is Murphy’s defence as she absorbs an average of 4.35 significant strikes per minute.  Being patient and making smart moves could be the difference-maker for Murphy.

Miesha Tate Fight Night Odds

Tate (19-8 MMA record) is a former Strikeforce bantamweight champion and a UFC legend who has been with the promotion since 2013.  She won the UFC bantamweight championship with a submission victory over Holly Holm at UFC 196 in 2016, but lost the belt to Amanda Nunes a few months later at UFC 200.

“Cupcake” has eight career wins by decision, seven by submission and four by KO/TKO.  The 35-year-old retired after a second consecutive loss at UFC 205 in November 2016 and didn’t fight again for almost five years.  Tate’s comeback fight was a third-round TKO victory against Marion Reneau in July 2021.  She followed that up with a unanimous decision loss against Ketlen Vieira last November before dropping down to flyweight for this fight.

Tate has a chance to make an instant impact in the flyweight division, which accounts for her top-10 ranking despite this being her flyweight debut.  The 35-year-old looked like her old self in the Reneau fight, but she struggled against Vieira.  She’s generally been a grappler in her career, averaging 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts.

The weight cut will be the biggest test for Tate in this fight.  If she can jump down without sacrificing too much stamina, her strength should be an advantage.  Her opponent tends to absorb a lot of shots, so Tate will need to punish Murphy from the start and take advantage of her power.  Look for Tate to try to control the fight and score points.

UFC Fight Night Prediction: Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate

Murphy has proven to be one of the top fighters in the flyweight division and she could get another crack at the title, but it’s tough to see her winning this fight.  Tate is just too much stronger, more powerful and more skilled than Murphy.  Tate wins by decision.