Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili: UFC 278 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
August 17, 2022

The most accomplished MMA fighter on the UFC 278 card Saturday night from Salt Lake City is Jose Aldo, and he takes on Merab Dvalishvili in a bantamweight non-title bout. Dvalishvili is a slight -125 favourite to win on the UFC odds, with Aldo at -105.

Merab Dvalishvili -125
Jose Aldo -125

Jose Aldo UFC 278 Odds

The 35-year-old Aldo (35-7) is considered one of the greatest MMA fighters in history and probably the best featherweight. Aldo now competes at bantamweight, however, where he’s ranked third in the division behind champion Aljamain Sterling, Petr Yan and TJ Dillashaw.

From 2006-2015, Aldo won 18 straight fights until he ran into Conor McGregor at UFC 194 and was stunned in just 13 seconds in one of the more memorable upsets in UFC history – McGregor wasn’t the household name he is now. Aldo won his belt back next time out vs. Frankie Edgar but then lost back-to-back title fights against Max Holloway.

“Junior” moved to bantamweight in December 2019 and is 3-2 at that weight, including a title fight loss to Yan by fifth-round TKO in July 2020. Aldo has since won his next three fights, including his last in December 2021 by unanimous decision over Rob Font.

The 5-foot-7 Aldo’s fights average 14:11. He lands 3.61 significant strikes per minute with 46 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 3.74 strikes with 60 per cent defence. Aldo’s takedown average is 0.51 per 15 minutes with 54 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 90 per cent. Aldo has just one win and one loss by submission and is known primarily for his Muay Thai style striking and leg kicks.

Saturday’s fight is seen as a possible title eliminator matchup. Aldo has admitted he has started pondering retirement as his original career plan was to retire at age 35 but as a champion.

“We dropped to bantamweight and we’re about to fight for the title in this division,” said Aldo. “I started out at bantamweight, I never thought I’d make that cut again. Now I’m ending my career at bantamweight, right where I started.”

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 278 Odds

The 31-year-old Dvalishvili is from the country of Georgia and is 14-4 in his professional career. He is ranked No. 6 in the bantamweight division but with a bullet. However, Merab might not be long for that weight because he’s buddies with the champion Aljamain Sterling and has said they will never fight. Dvalishvili has hinted at the possibility of dropping down to flyweight (125 pounds).

“I’m not going to let Jose Aldo beat me, and if Jose Aldo beats me, he’s next for the title shot,” said Dvalishvili. “But I’m going to win. I don’t care (about) title fight now. After this win, maybe I will try cut and go 125 or I fight Sean O’Malley or somebody with a big name. We all know, me and Aljo –we’re never fighting each other. We are best friends. So he’s champion and I’m O.K. Aljo makes me tell (everyone) he beats me every day in the gym.”

“The Machine” enters on a seven-fight winning streak. He last was in the Octagon in September 2021 and was hurt early against Marlon Moraes but battled back and won by second-round TKO (punches). It was only Dvalishvili’s third career win by KO/TKO – he usually wins by decision (71 per cent) or loses that way (75 per cent).

The 5-foot-6 Dvalishvili’s fights average 14:23. He lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute with 41 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.28 with 60 per cent defence. Merab’s takedown average is 7.30 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 78 per cent. He will be at a two-inch reach advantage.