Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane: UFC 285 Odds, Prediction

One of the most anticipated mixed martial arts fights in years takes place as the main event of UFC 285 on Saturday night from Las Vegas as all-time great Jon Jones battles Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight title. Jones is a -200 favourite on the MMA odds with Gane at +155.

Jon Jones -200
Ciryl Gane +155

Jon Jones UFC 285 Odds

The UFC’s heavyweight title is vacant because former champion Francis Ngannou was unable to come to a contract extension agreement with the organization after beating Ciryl Gane for the title at UFC 270 in January 2022.

The 35-year-old Jones, who fights out of Albuquerque, is unranked in the division because he has never fought in it. Many around mixed martial arts believe that Jones is the best to ever do it, and that could become official if he adds the UFC heavyweight belt to his previous long reign as the light heavyweight champion. Jones became the youngest UFC champion of all time in 2011 at age 23.

Jones is 26-1 in his Hall of Fame career with that loss to otherwise unremarkable Matt Hamill in December 2009, and Jones wasn’t beaten but disqualified due to illegal elbows. He also has one no contest, which came after he beat Daniel Cormier in July 2017 but then the California State Athletic Commission officially overturned the result of the fight to a no contest because Jones failed a drug test. “Bones” hasn’t fought since a unanimous decision win over Dominick Reyes in February 2020. He would vacate the belt not long after.

Failed drug tests and legal troubles have really been the only things to stop Jones. His 18-fight unbeaten streak in UFC competition is the longest in company history. The 19 men he has beaten in the UFC have combined for a whopping 447 victories and include some of the legends of the sport. Saturday will be Jones’ 19th main event in the UFC, the second-most in company history behind Anderson Silva (21). Jones has beaten seven fighters who once held an undisputed UFC belt, the most of any active fighter.

The 6-foot-4 Jones, who for years has said he wanted to move up to heavyweight, has a monster reach of 84.5 inches (longest of any active fighter) and his fights average 15:28. He lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.22 with 64 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.85 per 15 minutes with 44 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 95 per cent.

Jones had 10 wins by both decision and KO/TKO and six by submission. His 10 decision victories in UFC light heavyweight competition are most in divisional history and his 10 stoppage victories are third-most in divisional history. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is decision at +195, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +350 and submission at +680.

Ciryl Gane UFC 285 Odds

The 32-year-old Gane, from France, is ranked as the No. 1 heavyweight contender with an 11-1 record. He got a late start to his career, debuting as a professional in 2018 with the Canadian MMA promotion TKO, where he became a heavyweight champion.

“Bon Gamin” won the UFC interim heavyweight title by knocking out Derrick Lewis in August 2021. Gane became is the only French-born fighter in history to win a version of a UFC title. Gane’s plus-82 significant strike differential against Lewis remains the largest margin in a UFC heavyweight title fight. Gane looked to unify the title in January 2022 against Francis Ngannou but lost via unanimous decision. The Frenchman blamed his lack of wrestling awareness for that loss.

“(Jones won’t succeed) because this is kind of, the approach to the fight. During Francis Ngannou (fight), I did really bad (against his wrestling),” Gane admitted. “I was really not aware, I was really not focused on (his wrestling). And it took him two opportunities. Everybody talks about the wrestling, but I say that when he took the opportunities, he just used his power, but he don’t try to (put) me in danger. He don’t try to punch me, he don’t try to submit me; it was just about power. So, we spent a lot of time on the ground and he was on top because of the power. So, (on Saturday), I’m going to be really aware about the wrestling game of Jon Jones.”

Gane rebounded from the Ngannou loss with a third-round knockout (punches) of Tai Tuivasa last September. An uppercut finished that fight.

The 6-foot-4 Gane has a reach of 81 inches and his fights average 16:07. That average is the second-longest in divisional history behind Blagoy Ivanov (16:26). Gane lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute with 59 per cent accuracy (best rate among active heavyweights) and absorbs 2.25 with 62 per cent defense (third-best rate in divisional history). His takedown average is 0.62 per 15 minutes with 21 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 55 per cent.

Gane has five wins by KO/TKO, three by submission and three by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +315, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +545 and submission at +1500. A draw is +5200. That the fight goes the distance is -135 with no at +105.