Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone: UFC 276 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jun 29, 2022

Two of the most active fighters in history meet in a welterweight bout on the prelim card of UFC 276 from Vegas on Saturday when Jim Miller faces Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in a rematch.

Miller is -220 on the MMA odds with Cerrone at +160.

UFC 276 - Donald Cerrone v Jim Miller

  • Jim Miller -175
  • Donald Cerrone +140

Jim Miller UFC 276 Odds

Kamaru Usman is the welterweight champion and the 38-year-old Miller is not ranked with a professional record of 34-16 dating all the way back to 2005. He’s also a former Cage Fury Fighting lightweight champion and USKBA welterweight kickboxing champ.

This will be the 40th bout in the UFC for “A-10,” the most appearances in company history. Miller’s 23 wins in UFC competition are tied with Cerrone for most in company history, and his 45 submission attempts in UFC competition are the most in company history. Miller also holds a few UFC lightweight records, but this bout will be at welterweight as we explain below.

The 5-foot-8 Miller was last in the Octagon in February and beat Nikolas Motta by second-round TKO (punches). Miller’s 15 stoppage victories in UFC competition are third-most in company history. Overall, he has 18 wins by submission, 10 by decision and six by KO/TKO. Eleven of his losses are via the judges, three by submission and two by KO/TKO.

Miller’s fights last an average of 9:47, and he lands 2.7 significant strikes per minutes with 41 per cent accuracy while absorbing 2.92 per minute with 59 per cent accuracy. His takedown average is 1.61 per 15 minutes with 43 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 47 per cent. No method of victory props available for Saturday as of this writing. The over-under is 1.5 rounds (over -145 favourite) and it’s +146 to go the distance with no at -218.

Donald Cerrone UFC 276 Odds

About a week ago, Miller’s original opponent was to be Bobby Green at lightweight, but he withdrew for undisclosed reasons and Cerrone stepped in for a welterweight fight. “Cowboy” hasn’t fought this year; he was supposed to fight in May against Joe Lauzon, but he fell ill the day of the fight and was forced to pull out.

The 39-year-old Cerrone is unranked and 36-16 in a career that dates to 2006. This will be his 38th UFC bout, tied with Andrei Arlovski for the second-most appearances in company history behind Miller. It’s Cerrone’s 48th UFC/WEC appearance, the most in combined organizational history. His 23 victories in the UFC are tied with Miller and Arlovski for most in company history, and his 20 stoppage victories in UFC/WEC competition are the most in their combined history. Finally, his 20 knockdowns landed in UFC competition are most in company history.

Cerrone looks to go 2-0 vs. Miller, beating him by second-round KO way back in 2014. While “Cowboy” was once a lightweight contender, those days are gone as he’s on a career-high six-fight winless streak (one no contest). He hasn’t fought since May 2021, a first-round TKO loss to Alex Morono.

The 6-foot Cerrone’s fights average 9:44. He lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.49 per minute with 53 per cent accuracy. His takedown average per 15 minutes is 1.18 with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 74 per cent.

UFC 276 Prediction: Miller vs. Cerrone

Miller by decision