Holloway vs. Pettis: UFC 206 Odds and Predictions

The UFC returns to Toronto for the fifth time overall and first visit in three years Saturday night with a UFC 206 card at Air Canada Centre headlined by an interim featherweight championship fight between Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis. That was bumped up to the main event when a light-heavyweight title fight between champion Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson had to be postponed because of an injury suffered by Cormier. The five-fight main card should begin around 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view. Here’s a look at those bouts and their Sports Interaction MMA odds.

Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis

Records: Holloway (16-3), Pettis (19-5)
Division: Featherweight
UFC Odds: Holloway -185, Pettis +145; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Holloway by decision

The featherweight champion had been Irishman Conor McGregor, and of course last month at UFC 205 in New York, McGregor beat Eddie Alvarez to add the lightweight title. Earlier this month, the UFC said McGregor “relinquished” the featherweight belt, although McGregor disputed that. Regardless, he’s not fighting again for months and perhaps never again at featherweight. So now the champion is considered to be Jose Aldo, who was the long-time featherweight king before losing to McGregor in December 2015.
Aldo has said he won’t fight in the UFC again unless he gets a rematch with McGregor. But that’s posturing, and Aldo is expected to take on the Holloway-Pettis interim championship winner in 2017 for the undisputed featherweight title. Holloway, a 25-year-old Hawaiian, has won nine fights in a row since a unanimous decision loss to McGregor in August 2013. This is Holloway’s first title shot. Pettis is a former WEC and UFC lightweight champion. But he lost that UFC belt in March 2015 to Rafael dos Anjos and then lost his next two fights as well. So Pettis, a 29-year-old American, moved down to featherweight for the first time to fight Charles Oliveira in August and won by third-round submission.

Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown

Records: Cerrone (31-7), Brown (22-15)
Division: Welterweight
UFC Odds: Cerrone -275, Brown +200; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Cerrone by submission

Cerrone, a 33-year-old American, was to fight on the loaded UFC 205 card against Kelvin Gastelum, but Gastelum was apparently going to miss weight, didn’t bother showing up for the weigh-in and the bout was scrapped. “Cowboy” told the UFC he still wanted to fight as soon as possible so the organization set him up against Brown. Cerrone, ranked No. 5 in the division (Tyron Woodley is champion), has won three straight since a first-round TKO loss to Rafael dos Anjos last December. Cerrone last fought in August at UFC 202 and beat Rick Story by second-round TKO. None of Cerrone’s past five fights have gone to points and 16 of his wins are by submission. Brown, a 35-year-old American, is ranked 14th in the division. He has lost four of his past five, most recently a first-round TKO loss to Jake Ellenberger at UFC 201 in July.

Cub Swanson vs. Dooho Choi

Records: Swanson (23-7), Choi (14-1)
Division: Featherweight
UFC Odds: Choi -240, Swanson +180; O/U 1.5 rounds
Prediction: Choi by TKO or KO

Swanson is a 33-year-old American ranked No. 4 in the featherweight division — one spot ahead of Pettis. But Swanson already has lost to a pair of guys ahead of him in the rankings: a fifth-round submission defeat to Frankie Edgar in November 2014 and a third-round submission to Holloway in April 2015. Swanson has won back-to-back bouts since against lower-level opponents and both by unanimous decision. Swanson can win via any route: eight by TKO/KO, eight by decision and seven by submission. Choi, 25, is a rising star from South Korea ranked 11th. “The Korean Superboy” has had just three fights in the UFC and all ended in the first round by knockout or TKO against Juan Manuel Puig, Sam Sicilia and, in July, Thiago Tavares.

Tim Kennedy vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Records: Kennedy (18-5), Gastelum (13-2)
Division: Middleweight
UFC Odds: Kennedy -165, Gastelum +130; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Gastelum by decision

As noted above, Gastelum was to fight at welterweight against Cerrone at UFC 205, but Gastelum skipped the weigh-in because he wasn’t going to make that 170-pound limit. He was automatically suspended for that but agreed to a fine and then booked for this fight at middleweight, which is 185 pounds. Gastelum, a 25-year-old American, isn’t ranked as a middleweight and is the No. 11 welterweight. He is 2-2 in his past four bouts, beating Johny Hendricks by unanimous decision in July at UFC 200. Kennedy, 37 and also from the USA, was to fight at UFC 205 as well against Rashad Evans, who couldn’t get a licence for medical reasons. Then it was scheduled for UFC 206, but Evans couldn’t get a licence from the Ontario Athletic Commission, either. Kennedy hasn’t fought since a controversial third-round technical knockout loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 178 in September 2014. Kennedy had won four straight before that, including a victory over current middleweight king Michael Bisping.

Jordan Mein vs. Emil Weber Meek

Records: Mein (29-10), Meek (8-2-1)
Division: Welterweight
UFC Odds: Mein -165, Meek +130; O/U 1.5 rounds
Prediction: Mein by TKO or KO

Mein, a 27-year-old native of Lethbridge, Alberta, decided to retire after a second-round knockout loss to Thiago Alves at UFC 183 in January 2015. That was met with surprise considering Mein was just 25 at the time, but he also had 39 career fights and had turned pro in 2006. But obviously retirement didn’t stick with the “Young Gun.” He unretired in May. Meek, a 28-year-old from Norway, is making his UFC debut. In May, he had a 45-second knockout victory over UFC veteran and former WSOF champion Rousimar Palhares at Venator FC 3 in Italy. Meek was then to fight Jessin Ayari at UFC Fight Night 93 in September, but he was pulled from the card. All of Meek’s fights have ended by TKO or KO.