Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2: UFC 291 Odds, Prediction
The UFC heads back to Salt Lake City, Utah for the second straight year for a star-studded UFC 291 card on Saturday. The night will be capped off by a main event rematch five years in the making as lightweights Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje compete in a non-title fight that will reward the winner bragging rights and the BMF belt.
Poirier and Gaethje, both former interim lightweight champions, first met in April 2018, with Poirier coming out on top with a fourth round TKO victory. Can Gaethje get his long awaited revenge on Saturday?
Poirier is a -170 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Gaethje is a +135 underdog.
Dustin Poirier UFC 291 Odds
Poirier is 29-7 with one no contest since his professional MMA debut in 2009. He is currently ranked as the No. 2 contender in the UFC lightweight rankings and No. 13 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. The 34-year-old native of Louisiana has 14 career wins by knockout, eight by submission and seven by decision.
Poirier made his UFC debut in 2011 and has put together a 21-6 record in the Octagon. He won the interim lightweight title with a unanimous decision victory against Max Holloway at UFC 236 in 2019, but lost his bid for the championship title against the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov later that year. He also foought Charles Oliveira for the lightweight championship two years ago, but lost by submission.
“The Diamond” is most known for his rivalry with Conor McGregor. Poirier lost to McGregor in 2014, but dominated the Irishman in back-to-back victories in 2021. He has a 6-2 record since facing Gaethje five years ago, knocking off Eddie Alvarez, Holloway, Dan Hooker, McGregor twice and Michael Chandler last November.
Poirier is a natural striker. He averages 5.51 significant strikes landed per minute with 50 per cent accuracy. He’s also not afraid to move things to the ground, averaging 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy.
There’s one thing a Poirier fight can guarantee you and that’s entertainment. The proof of that is his eight career Fight of the Night bonuses and three Performance of the Night bonuses. He’s facing another elite striker, which means this fight could be an absolute brawl that likely ends in a knockout.
Justin Gaethje UFC 291 Odds
Currently ranked as the No. 3 contender in the UFC lightweight rankings, Gaethje has been a professional MMA fighter since 2011, stringing together a career record of 24-4. The 34-year-old has a strong wrestling background as a former two-time Arizona state champion in high school and an NCAA Division-I All-American at the University of Northern Colorado.
Gaethje won the inaugural World Series of Fighting lightweight championship in 2013 and successfully defended the title five times before joining the UFC in 2017. Like Poirier, Gaethje also won the interim UFC lightweight belt only to lose a championship bid against Nurmagomedov in his next fight. That loss proved historic, however, as Nurmagomedov retired with a perfect 29-0 record immediately following the fight.
“The Highlight” has 19 career wins by knockout, four by decision and one by submission. He has a 6-2 record in the five years after his first fight against Poirier, but has alternated wins and losses across his last four appearances in the Octagon. Gaethje fought earlier this year, winning by majority decision against Rafael Fiziev in March. The win earned him his seventh career Fight of the Night bonus. He also has four Performance of the Night bonuses.
Gaethje is another elite striker. He averages a staggering 7.38 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes and does it with 60 per cent accuracy. He’s not as comfortable on the ground, averaging 0.13 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 25 per cent accuracy.
This is a big opportunity for Gaethje and he knows it. His only two losses in the last five years have been title shots against Nurmagomedov and Oliveira and a win on Saturday could set up a third title shot, this time against current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Bank on Gaethje going hard from the start.
UFC 291 Prediction: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
This is the most even UFC main event in recent memory. You have a rematch between two highly elite 34-year-old strikers with identical records in the five years since they last fought. This could be seen as a coin-toss fight, but the odds likely favour Poirier because he is a more versatile fighter. It’s that versatility that I side with. Poirier wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)