Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor Prediction: UFC 264 Odds

After Dustin Poirier put Conor McGregor to sleep in the second round of their rematch in January, the rubber match was inevitable.  The highlight and main event of Saturday’s UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will be a lightweight fight between No. 1 contender Poirier and No. 5 McGregor.  The winner of this fight should get the next shot at lightweight champ Charles Oliveira, but you can bet that both fighters are strictly focused on knocking their opponent out.

The early line has Poirier as a -120 favourite to win on the MMA odds and McGregor at -105.  It’s worth continuing to monitor though, as the line could significantly shift as we get closer to the fight.

Dustin Poirier UFC 264 Odds

Poirier (27-6 MMA record) actually looked like he might be in over his head at the start of the January rematch, but he quickly adjusted and followed the game plan.  He brutally attacked McGregor’s lead leg to limit the Irish superstar’s mobility, before focusing on punches along the fence.  It all ultimately led to a second-round knockout.  Poirier looks like he could take out anyone in the lightweight division right now and a win on Saturday would give him the title shot he deserves.  He’s been nearly perfect over the last four years, with a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov and a no contest against Eddie Alvarez being the only blemishes in his last nine fights.

The “Diamond” prefers to fight on his feet, but he also has no problem taking the fight to the ground if he needs to.  His striking numbers are nearly identical to McGregor’s and he averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to just 0.7 for McGregor.  Poirier is a crisp and powerful striker and his more well-rounded skillset was evident in the last fight.  You can bet McGregor will come with a better gameplan on Saturday, so Poirier will need to approach this fight different.  His best path to victory is to get the fight on the ground as quick as possible and make McGregor uncomfortable.

Conor McGregor UFC 264 Odds

McGregor (22-5 MMA record) is coming off his first career knockout loss.  It’s also the first time since 2016 he is fighting twice in the same calendar year.  With an early knockout win over Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone leading up to the second Poirier fight, McGregor clearly struggled with the pace of the fight after logging just 40 seconds of fight-time in the previous 40 months.  The first fighter in UFC history to hold two titles simultaneously (featherweight and lightweight), McGregor is now just 3-3 in his last six fights.  Is it rust because of infrequent fights over the last few years, or has McGregor permanently lost his edge?

Few people would argue the “Notorious” is the better boxer in this fight.  That becomes even more beneficial when you consider he also has a one-inch reach advantage over Poirier.  McGregor is a lethal striker who has knockout wins over fighters like Jose Aldo, Alvarez and of course, Poirer, though the Poirier KO was seven years ago at featherweight.  Poirier effectively eliminated McGregor’s powerful left hand in the last fight, so the Irishman will need to avoid punishing leg kicks this time around.  McGregor can handle himself on the ground, but he can’t match Poirier, so he’ll also need to keep this fight standing up.  The best bet for McGregor is to dictate the pace from the start and finish Poirier quickly.  The longer this fight goes, the more dangerous it will get for McGregor.

UFC 264 Prediction: Poirier vs. McGregor

This is a fight between two competitors that are extremely close in terms of fighting style, skillset and experience.  You could make a case for either of them to be the favourite or the underdog.  That being said, there has to be a winner and it will be shocking if this fight goes the distance.  We’re taking McGregor by second-round knockout.