Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac: UFC Vegas 68 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
February 2, 2023

The main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night Vegas 68 card is a heavyweight battle between Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac in a card that originally was planned for Seoul, South Korea, but the UFC changed for unknown reasons.

Spivac is a -235 favourite on the MMA odds and Lewis is +175.

Sergey Spivak -255
Derrick Lewis +185

Derrick Lewis UFC Vegas 68 Odds

The UFC’s heavyweight title is currently vacant. The 37-year-old Lewis, from Houston, is ranked No. 7 and is 26-10 with one no contest in a pro career dating to 2010. Lewis also competed for Bellator and Legacy FC, where he was a heavyweight champion.

“The Black Beast” did get one shot at the interim UFC heavyweight title in August 2021 but lost via third-round TKO (punches) to current No. 1 contender Ciryl Gane, who will fight Jon Jones next month for the heavyweight title. In the third round, Gane was able to hurt Lewis and then swarmed with strikes to end it.

Lewis is 1-2 since then and comes off a first-round TKO loss (punches) to Sergei Pavlovich last July. There was a bit of controversy there as many thought the stoppage by referee Dan Miragliotta was premature. Immediately after Miragliotta stepped in, Lewis protested.

The 6-foot-3 Lewis has a reach of 79 inches and his fights average 9:02. He averages 2.57 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.57 with 41 per cent defence. Lewis’ takedown average is 0.60 per 15 minutes with 28 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 55 per cent.

He has 21 wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and just one by submission. Seven of his nine losses are by KO/TKO. Lewis’ favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +175 followed by decision at +900 and submission at +3300.

This will be Lewis’ 26th UFC heavyweight bout, the third-most appearances in divisional history behind Andrei Arlovski (39) and Frank Mir (27). Lewis’ 17 heavyweight wins are second-most in divisional history behind Arlovski (23). Lewis’ 13 stoppage victories are tied with Mir for most in divisional history, and Lewis’ 13 knockout victories in are most in UFC history regardless of division. Lewis remains the only fighter in history to have his first eight UFC bouts end in a knockout.

Serghei Spivac UFC Vegas 68 Odds

You may also see Spivac’s first name spelled as Sergey. The 28-year-old from Moldovia is ranked 12th in the heavyweight division and is 15-3 in a career dating to 2014. He is a former World Warriors Fighting Championship heavyweight king and has been in the UFC since 2019.

Spivac was originally to face Lewis last November, but Lewis was forced to pull out due to a non-COVID, non-weight cutting illness. “The Polar Bear” is 7-2 in the UFC and comes off a second-round TKO win (punches) over Augusto Sakai last August. Ahead of the fight, Sakai had made the move to American Top Team in Florida.

The 6-foot-3 Spivac has a reach of 78 inches and his fights average 8:34. He lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.96 per minute with 55 per cent defence. Spivac’s takedown average is 4.09 per 15 minutes with 63 per cent accuracy (best in divisional history), and his takedown defence 70 per cent.

Seven of Spivac’s 15 wins are by KO/TKO, six by submission and two via the judges. Two of his three losses are by KO/TKO. Spivac has earned 13 of his 15 career victories by stoppage and finished nine of those wins in Round 1. He is one of nine fighters to land 20 or more takedowns in UFC heavyweight competition.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is KO/TKO/DQ at -110 followed by submission at +250 and decision +550. The over-under for rounds is 1.5, with the under a slight favourite. That it goes the distance is +474.